Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Braces for “Liberation Day” Tariffs, XRP Funding Rate Turns Bearish
The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility in March as US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies created uncertainty across global markets. Despite the challenging environment, on-chain metrics suggest strong underlying confidence from long-term Bitcoin investors, while XRP faces increasing bearish sentiment following its post-SEC rally decline.
Crypto Market Developments
Rising US debt could drive investors toward Bitcoin, therefore endangering the dollar’s worldwide dominance according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. Fink said in his Annual Chairman’s Letter to Investors that “decentralized finance is an extraordinary invention” making markets “faster, cheaper, and more transparent,” but cautioned this same innovation could “undermine America’s economic advantage if investors begin seeing Bitcoin as a safer bet than the dollar.”
The Trump family has become more deeply involved in the crypto industry meanwhile. Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump are among several President Trump’s family members supporting a new business with Hut 8 to establish what hopes to be the biggest Bitcoin mining company worldwide. American Bitcoin (previously American Data Center) will take custody of Hut 8’s Bitcoin mining equipment under terms of the agreement.
With Ethereum-based protocol SIR.trading losing its whole $355,000 total value locked (TVL) in a hack on March 30, the DeFi industry still suffers security issues. Targeting a callback feature in the “vulnerable contract Vault,” the assault let the assailant reroute money. This raises questions regarding industry security norms since it adds to the $22 million lost over four DeFi breaches in March.
March Recap: Crypto Market in Numbers
With Bitcoin finishing over 5% down for the month under Trump’s unclear tariff proposals, March was a difficult month for cryptocurrency markets. With 25% on Mexican and Canadian goods, 10% on Canadian energy, and 20% on Chinese goods, the US President’s trade war had a major effect on markets as tariffs went active on March 4. Retaliatory tariffs from China and the European Union heightened market volatility even more.
DeFi markets kept contracting concurrently. Solana volumes on distributed exchanges dropped drastically after hitting highs of $34 billion in January, hardly surpassing $1 billion in March. The memecoin market is clearly cooling as seen by this 99% drop in revenues from a high of $15 million on January 19 to just $119,000 at month’s end.
Two US states—Utah and Kentucky—passed bitcoin laws in March, defining digital assets and blockchain technology and thereby guiding companies to accept cryptocurrencies on the legislative front. Thirteen other states also advanced other crypto measures; Texas introduced three separate bills allowing state officials to invest public assets in crypto, develop an oil-based stablecoin, and set a blockchain pilot program.
Bitcoin Sees a Small Bounce Above $82,000
Currently valued at roughly $82,600, Bitcoin BTC/USD is experiencing a small comeback following a recent downturn. Though trade war worries caused general sideways movement in March, numerous important indicators show underlying strength. Reaching an all-time high, Bitcoin’s mining hashrate reflects ongoing network security and miner trust. The six-year low in bitcoin exchange reserves points to investors’ inclination for holding.
Especially, Strategy added a significant 22,048 Bitcoin to its reserves by using a recent pullback. With huge holders demonstrating resistance to market instability, on-chain analysis also suggests a pattern of whale accumulation matching the optimistic activities expected in 2020. With a supply zone between $86,700 and $88,700 acting as the next main obstacle, Bitcoin’s immediate focus is on turning the $84,000 level into support for a possible bullish continuation.
XRP Funding Rate Turns Negative, Watch Key $2 Level
Having had a 22% reversal following an initial jump to $2.59 following Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s statement of a positive development in the SEC case on March 19, XRP XRP/USD is currently trading around $2.07. XRP’s funding rate on perpetual futures has turned negative even if it is now well known and even mentioned by President Trump as a possible candidate for the US digital asset strategic reserves. Reflecting poor market confidence in the near future, this shows great demand for leveraged negative bets.
Additionally indicating bearish momentum, the long-to-short margin ratio at OKX is almost lowest in more than six months. Key support for XRP is around the $2 mark; any bounce expected will face selling pressure at the moving averages. Technical analysis suggests that a breach below $2 could cause more falls towards $1.77 or perhaps $1.27.
Top Altcoins to Watch Today
- Solana SOL/USD – Finding support near $120, SOL needs to break above the 20-day EMA ($133) to show strength. Despite the dramatic decline in DEX volumes, infrastructure improvements from the memecoin boom have made “Solana as a chain 100 times better than it was pre-memecoin,” according to Synthetix founder Kain Warwick.
- Cardano ADA/USD – Currently testing the uptrend line support level, ADA could see movement toward the moving averages if this support holds. Breaking above the 50-day SMA ($0.75) would put buyers back in control.
- Toncoin (TON) – Being squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($3.63) and resistance at $4.14, TON shows bullish indicators with upsloping 20-day EMA and RSI in positive territory. A breakthrough above $4.14 could trigger momentum toward $5 and potentially $5.65.
- Dogecoin DOGE/USD – Attempting to find support at $0.16, but weak bounce suggests lack of demand. DOGE could decline to $0.14, where buyers are expected to step in, but a break below could send it toward $0.10.
- BNB BNB/USD – After breaking below moving averages on March 29, BNB has support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $591. A rebound could target the $644 resistance, while a break below $575 might delay the next leg up.
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