Gold prices continue their upward trajectory despite mixed economic signals. The once-unthinkable $4,000 target now seems increasingly possible, especially after XAU/USD touched $3,057 on Wednesday. A brief dip below $3,000 triggered a strong buying response, confirming support at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The bullish momentum resumed following the announcement of auto tariffs, pushing gold above $3,085 and reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset amid market uncertainty.
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Forex Signals Brief March 31: April 2 Tariffs Set to Shape Stock Markets and Currencies
Skerdian Meta•Monday, March 31, 2025•3 min read
This week markets will be focused on April 2 tariffs, but there will likely be high volatility before and after, as the war continues.
Last week started on a positive not, with positive comments about trade tariff negotiations, which gave the idea of a less severe trade war. That sent stock markets surging higher in the first two days, and USD moving higher. Nasdaq climbed above 20,000 points again.
But the sentiment shifted on Wednesday and stock markets reversed lower, with car manufacturers enduring some pain after the auto tariffs. Major stock indices gave back all the recent gains, with AI and tech companies leading the decline, with stocks such as Amazon and Google posting some hefty losses.
Gold benefited from all this once again and surged higher in the last two days of the week, printing a ew record high at $3,086.77, approaching the $4,100 level. Crude Oil continued to remain bullish due to elevated situation in the Middle East and the failure to press ahead with an agreement on Ukraine, with WTI climbing above $70, but it failed to hold gain’s above that level.
This Week’s Forex Events
The global markets remain tense ahead of the anticipated trade duties set to be announced on Wednesday. While the tariffs themselves will be the main event, discussions and speculation both before and after the announcement are expected to keep volatility high. President Trump has recently urged his administration to take a more aggressive stance, instructing officials to explore broader tariff measures that would impose higher rates on a wider range of countries.
Some of Trump’s advisors have considered the introduction of global tariffs of up to 20%, which could impact nearly all of the United States’ trading partners. Additionally, a reciprocal tariff strategy remains a possibility, where tariffs would be imposed on any country with which the U.S. has a trade deficit. An administration official confirmed that Trump is keen on enforcing these measures to address what he sees as unfair trade imbalances.
Meanwhile, China’s latest economic data indicates a modest improvement in manufacturing activity. The country’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March rose to 50.5, marking its highest level in a year and aligning with expectations. However, external demand remains weak, as reflected in the new export orders index, which remained in contraction at 49.0 for the eleventh consecutive month.
Other key economic indicators from China showed mixed results. The production index inched up to 50.5 from the previous 50.4 reading, while the new orders index fell slightly to 51.8 from February’s 51.1. The non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, surpassing expectations of 50.5 and improving from the prior 50.4. The overall Composite PMI stood at 51.4, up from 51.1 in the previous month.
Last week the volatility was high once again and there were quite a few reversals as well, as the USD reversed the gains by mid weak, as did stock markets. We opened many trading signals as a result, 37 in total, ending the week with 25 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Keeps Making Record Highs
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
WTI Oil Price Touches $70 as Ukraine Deal Drags
Oil markets have also been volatile, with WTI crude falling below $65 per barrel in January as optimism over a potential resolution to the Ukraine-Russia conflict eased geopolitical tensions. However, the situation has shifted in recent weeks, with Ukraine delaying a peace agreement, reigniting concerns and driving WTI crude back above $70 per barrel. Despite this rebound, the market sentiment dampened and lead to another downturn in WTI prices below $70 again on Friday.
WTI – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Consolidates Below $90K
Meanwhile, Bitcoin experienced a sharp $5,000 rally midweek after the Federal Reserve signaled a more dovish stance. Despite President Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrencies, the momentum was short-lived, with BTC/USD facing resistance at the 20-day SMA, a key technical hurdle. The 200-day SMA now serves as a crucial support level—if Bitcoin fails to hold above it, further declines could follow.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Remains Subdued by MAs
Ripple (XRP) also saw a brief surge after CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the prolonged SEC lawsuit against the company had been resolved. The news sent XRP above $2.58, briefly testing resistance at the 50-day SMA. However, the rally lost steam, causing the price to slip below $2.50 by the close of trading. Despite the pullback, Ripple remains the third-largest cryptocurrency, maintaining a market capitalization of $140 billion.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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