Gold Could Climb 10% as Tariff Tensions Mount and Wall Street Lifts Forecasts

On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, widening the scope of the ongoing trade dispute. This escalation has rekindled safe-haven demand, propelling gold to an intraday high of $3,057.21 on March 20—a record level.

Investor anxiety over inflation, economic slowdown, and global retaliation has been fueling interest in bullion. Non-yielding assets like gold historically benefit from such uncertainty, particularly when monetary policy appears poised to loosen. Market participants are closely watching Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which could further influence rate expectations.

Goldman Sachs has responded to these developments by raising its 2025 year-end gold forecast from $3,100 to $3,300 per ounce. The bank cites resilient central bank demand and stronger-than-expected ETF inflows as primary drivers.

Key highlights:

• U.S. announces 25% auto tariffs; gold nears $3,057 peak

• Goldman Sachs raises gold forecast to $3,300 for 2025

• Tariffs and inflation concerns drive safe-haven demand

Analysts See Room for More Upside

According to Aakash Doshi, global head of gold at SPDR ETF Strategy, gold could climb another 8% to 10% by year-end if current macro tailwinds persist. He notes that a break above $3,100 in Q2 is increasingly likely if market volatility remains elevated. Similarly, Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, sees the March high of $3,057 as near-term resistance, with $3,100 as the next technical target.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to leave interest rates unchanged has helped stabilize gold’s momentum. While Fed officials continue to highlight inflation concerns, the broader signal points to potential rate cuts later in the year—a favorable backdrop for gold, which becomes more attractive in low-rate environments.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari confirmed that while progress has been made on inflation, more work is needed to reach the 2% target. This balance of cautious optimism and policy patience keeps gold well-positioned in a shifting macro landscape.

Gold Price Holds Above Key Support Levels

On the technical side, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,030 and remains firmly within a rising channel on the 4-hour chart. The 50-period EMA at $3,012 continues to act as dynamic support. Price structure shows higher highs and higher lows since early March, signaling strong demand.

Immediate resistance is noted at $3,043, with the March high of $3,057 acting as a key breakout level. A confirmed close above $3,057 would expose upside potential toward $3,075 and possibly $3,100 in the near term.

Conversely, $3,015 and the lower boundary of the channel near $3,000 offer nearby support. The RSI stands near 56, suggesting the market retains bullish momentum without appearing overstretched.

Technical snapshot:

• Support levels: $3,015, $3,000

• Resistance levels: $3,043, $3,057, $3,075

• RSI: 56 (neutral to bullish bias)

As long as gold holds above its key moving averages and within the upward channel, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.