Gold Eyes $3,200 by Sept as Tariff Tensions and Inflation Fears Mount

Gold prices held steady on Wednesday, with investors bracing for a potential economic storm as President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policies loom.

Traders are cautiously repositioning ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement, which markets fear could stoke inflation while slowing economic growth—a toxic mix pointing toward stagflation.

According to Soni Kumari, commodity strategist at ANZ, “There are real concerns around U.S. economic growth and inflation. The U.S. is likely to face a stagflationary scenario, and that could support gold prices.”

These concerns gained traction after the U.S. consumer confidence index plunged in March, falling to its lowest level in over four years. The sentiment drop reflects household anxiety over a potential recession triggered by tariff-fueled inflation.

Gold, known for its safe-haven status during periods of economic distress, has already risen 15% year-to-date, briefly touching an all-time high of $3,057.21 on March 20. As fears of inflation and economic stagnation mount, the yellow metal is drawing renewed interest from institutional and retail investors alike.

Gold Technical Picture: Bearish Bias Builds Below $3,035

From a technical standpoint, gold is flashing early warning signs of a bearish reversal. The price recently slipped below an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, suggesting the bullish momentum may be waning.

A Doji candle formation just below the $3,035 resistance reflects indecision and a potential shift in sentiment. Meanwhile, a bearish RSI crossover adds weight to the case for a short-term correction.

Key levels to watch:

• Support: $3,008 (50-period EMA), $3,000 (psychological), $2,982, $2,965

• Resistance: $3,035, $3,057 (March peak), $3,075

• A break below $3,000 could trigger a deeper correction toward $2,949

While holding above $3,000 could attract dip buyers, a decisive close below this level would invalidate the prior bullish trend and likely extend the downside move.

Fed, Geopolitics Add More Uncertainty to the Mix

Investors are also looking to the Federal Reserve for direction. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak later today, and markets will be closely monitoring their tone. Any hawkish rhetoric could pressure gold, though Kumari believes the long-term trajectory remains intact.

“We are forecasting $3,200 by September,” she said, noting that only aggressive rate hikes or surprisingly strong inflation data could stall the rally.

On the geopolitical front, news emerged that the U.S. brokered temporary ceasefire agreements with Ukraine and Russia, aiming to pause strikes on energy infrastructure. While the move brings short-term relief, it also opens the door to further diplomacy—including a possible easing of sanctions against Moscow, a scenario that may introduce volatility to both gold and broader markets.

Conclusion: Gold’s fundamentals remain bullish amid tariff risks, inflation concerns, and geopolitical complexity. While short-term technicals suggest caution below $3,035, the broader outlook favors upside, with $3,200 still within reach if stagflation fears materialize.