Meanwhile, gold prices continue their record-breaking rally, defying both positive and negative economic news. The idea of gold reaching $4,000 once seemed far-fetched, but with XAU/USD climbing to $3,057 on Wednesday, that target now appears increasingly realistic. However, yesterday we saw a retreat to $3,002, where we decided to open a buy Gold signal.
btc-usd
Forex Signals Brief March 25: Home Sales to Increase as US Mortgage Rates Fall
Skerdian Meta•Tuesday, March 25, 2025•3 min read
Yesterday we saw a surge in US stock markets, while today home sales are expected to increase, with US mortgage rates 37 bps lower from January high.
Over the weekend, multiple reports suggested that US President Donald Trump had no plans to introduce new tariffs on April 2, aside from reciprocal measures targeting a smaller group of countries with significant trade surpluses. Trump later confirmed this, though details remained unclear.
This reassurance fueled a strong stock market rally, lifted bond yields to the upper end of their recent range, and strengthened the US dollar. The dollar’s rise was somewhat unexpected but was supported by renewed investor interest in previously underperforming stocks like Tesla, Google, Amazon, and AMD, as well as a stronger-than-expected S&P Global Services PMI. The report helped ease recession fears, and Federal Reserve officials reinforced this sentiment by stating that business contacts had not reported any major slowdown.
The Japanese yen was the biggest loser in currency markets as the risk-off trade began to unwind. USD/JPY surged over two yen to close near 151. Most other currency pairs traded within a narrow range, with the exception of the Canadian dollar, which gained on Trump’s more constructive trade stance and the widely expected weekend election announcement in Canada. Oil prices also climbed by about $1 per barrel, despite OPEC+ continuing to increase output.
Today’s Forex Events
Consumer confidence in the United States is projected to decline to 94.0, down from 98.3 previously, marking the steepest drop since August 2021. According to Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, this is the third consecutive monthly decline, bringing the index to the lower end of its 2022-2025 range. Of the five components measured, only the evaluation of current business conditions showed slight improvement.
The US New Home Sales have been on a declining trend since the middle of last year, as interest rates kept surging above 7%, with the FED keeping rates elevated. However, we have seen a decline in mortgage rates in recent months as the FED started to ease the monetary policy late last, and in February we’re expecting to see another increase in New Home Sales, which would improve the sentiment further.
Last week the volatility was high, but there were quite a few reversals as well, as the USD started to make a comeback after crashing down for several weeks. We opened many trading signals as a result, 43 in total, ending the week with 24 winning signals and 19 losing ones.
Buying the Pullback in Gold at 3,000
XAU/USD – H1 Chart
USD/CAD Rebound Fades
In the forex market, USD/CAD initially spiked to 1.4792 after Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports. However, as trade negotiations led to partial tariff reductions, the pair retraced to 1.4150, with traders anticipating further cuts. Despite ongoing volatility, the 100-day SMA has provided solid support, and a stronger-than-expected Canadian CPI report contributed to another rebound.
USD/CAD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Unable to Break the 200 Daily SMA
Bitcoin surged by $5,000 midweek following the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, but despite Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrencies, the rally was short-lived. BTC/USD was rejected at the 20-day SMA, reinforcing this level as strong resistance. The 200-day SMA is now acting as support, and failure to hold above it could trigger further declines. However, a breakout above the 20-day SMA could send Bitcoin soaring past the $90,000 mark.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Keeps Making Lower Highs
Ripple (XRP) also experienced a sharp increase after CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the long-running SEC case against the company had officially ended. The news sent XRP up over 10% to $2.58, briefly testing resistance at the 50-day SMA. However, buyers struggled to sustain momentum above this level, and XRP slipped back below $2.50 by the session’s close. Despite this pullback, Ripple remains the third-largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization of $146 billion.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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