XRP Price Prediction: ETF Odds Hit 86% After SEC Retreat – Rally Ahead?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision to withdraw its appeal against the ruling on XRP’s programmatic sales has reignited ETF speculation across the crypto market.

The legal shift removes ambiguity about whether XRP qualifies as a security in secondary markets—an issue that’s long haunted institutional interest.

With the SEC effectively stepping aside, the path appears clearer for pending XRP spot ETF applications. Firms like 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, Grayscale, and Canary Funds are all waiting in the wings for regulatory approval. While the final decision deadline is set for October 2025, the SEC now has no significant legal roadblock to issuing early approvals.

On-chain and institutional analysts believe this could trigger a seismic shift in XRP’s market appeal. With legal risks reduced, financial products that have long eluded XRP may now come into focus, beginning with ETFs.

Betting Markets Back XRP ETF by December

Crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket has seen a sharp uptick in confidence regarding an XRP spot ETF. Following Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s public remarks, Polymarket data shows approval odds by December 2025 rising to 86%, up from 77%. Shorter-term expectations have also improved, with Q2 2025 odds climbing from 33% to 46%.

Why does this matter? Because market sentiment often leads price action. Historical data offers a clue: In the weeks leading up to the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, BTC surged by 51%, helped in part by institutional frontrunning and political tailwinds. That rally contributed to BTC’s record high of $109,312.

If XRP experiences a similar ETF-fueled run, traders are eyeing a potential retest of its 2018 all-time high of $3.55. Analysts stress that the ETF narrative is just one factor; Ripple’s pending cross-appeal and broader adoption of XRP Ledger-based products also matter. Still, the regulatory shift is hard to ignore.

Key ETF Takeaways:

• Polymarket approval odds for an XRP ETF by Dec 2025: 86%

• Early H1 2025 odds now sit at 46%, up 13 percentage points

• Bitcoin ETF history suggests potential for 50%+ XRP rally

Technical Outlook: XRP Poised for Short-Term Gains

XRP is currently trading at $2.45, up 2.77% in the past 24 hours, supported by rising market cap and volume. The 4-hour chart reveals a breakout above the ascending trendline, reinforced by a bullish engulfing candle that signals buyer control. The 50-day EMA, now at $2.41, is acting as dynamic support.

A sustained hold above the pivot point of $2.42 keeps the bulls in charge. Immediate resistance is at $2.51, with the next key levels at $2.59 and $2.69. A confirmed breakout above $2.51 could accelerate gains. On the downside, support holds at $2.35, with further layers at $2.29 and $2.21 if selling pressure increases.

Momentum and volume support a continuation of the uptrend, especially if institutional tailwinds from the ETF news persist. However, a break below $2.41 would dampen bullish sentiment and could trigger a short-term retracement.

Technical Summary:

• Bullish engulfing candle near $2.42 strengthens trend

• Break above $2.51 opens door to $2.59 and $2.69

• $2.41 remains critical support to maintain current momentum