Gold prices continue their relentless climb, reaching new highs regardless of economic developments. The once-unthinkable $4,000 target now seems increasingly possible as bullish momentum remains strong. Just days ago, the idea of gold hitting $4,000 by year-end was mentioned in jest, but with XAU/USD surging to $3,057 on Wednesday, that prediction is looking far more realistic.
btc-usd
Forex Signals Brief March 24: Can Services & Mfg. PMIs Signal a Global Economic Rebound?
Skerdian Meta•Monday, March 24, 2025•3 min read
Manufacturing has been in contraction for years and today we’ll see if tariffs are actually improving it or services PMI.
Last week started with some positive news, as China announced additional stimulus measures, which improved risk sentiment on Monday, sending commodity dollars higher. But, the attention was on central banks and the tariff war, which ended with some positive signal from President Trump on Friday, saying there’s “flexibility” and that he will talk with China.
Regarding central banks, only the Swiss National Bank offered a rate cut, while the other major central banks kept rates on hold for more pain. Bank of Japan kept rates at 0.50, while the FED and the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.50%.
Gold had another wild week, surging to $3,057 by Thursday but retreated on Friday, although it remained above $3,000. Stock markets found some solid ground after the 4-5 week decline and made some considerable gains last week.
This Week’s Forex Events
This week is light regarding forex data that could drive significant market movements. PMI releases will set the tone early, followed by key inflation figures and central bank insights midweek. The US GDP and PCE report will be critical in shaping Fed expectations. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility, especially in forex, stocks, and commodities, as markets react to economic surprises.
Upcoming Economic Events to Watch This Week
Monday: Key PMI Data Releases
Flash PMIs from Australia, Japan, Eurozone, UK, and US will provide insights into economic activity and business sentiment.
A stronger-than-expected reading could support risk assets, while weaker data may fuel recession concerns.
Tuesday: Economic Confidence Indicators
German IFO Business Climate Index will gauge sentiment among German firms amid economic uncertainty.
US Consumer Confidence will reflect household sentiment on economic conditions and future expectations, influencing USD movement.
Wednesday: Inflation & Policy Insights
Australia Monthly CPI will offer an inflation snapshot, impacting RBA rate expectations.
UK CPI will be closely monitored by the BoE for inflation trajectory and potential policy shifts.
US Durable Goods Orders will indicate business investment trends and economic momentum.
Bank of Canada (BoC) Meeting Minutes may provide clarity on future monetary policy stance.
Thursday: US Growth & Labor Market Data
US Final Q4 GDP will confirm the pace of economic expansion, impacting Fed expectations.
US Weekly Jobless Claims will reveal labor market strength or weakness, influencing rate outlooks.
Friday: Inflation & Consumer Sentiment Reports
Tokyo CPI & BoJ Summary of Opinions will offer clues on Japan’s inflation trend and policy direction.
UK Retail Sales will reflect consumer spending trends in a high-inflation environment.
French CPI will provide another gauge of Eurozone inflation.
Canada GDP will impact BoC rate projections and CAD movement.
US PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) will be a key driver for future interest rate expectations.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final) will give a final reading on US consumer confidence.
Last week the volatility was high, but there were quite a few reversals as well, as the USD started to make a comeback after crashing down for several weeks. We opened many trading signals as a result, 43 in total, ending the week with 24 winning signals and 19 losing ones.
Gold Returns Above 3,000
XAU/USD – H1 Chart
USD/CAD Rebound Fades
In the forex market, USD/CAD initially spiked to 1.4792 after President Trump enacted a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports. However, as trade negotiations led to partial tariff reductions, the pair retraced to 1.4150, with traders speculating on further cuts. Despite ongoing volatility, the 100-day SMA held as strong support, and a higher-than-expected Canadian CPI report helped push the pair back upward.
USD/CAD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Unable to Break the 200 Daily SMA
Bitcoin saw a sharp $5,000 surge midweek following the Federal Reserve’s dovish policy stance. Yet, despite President Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrencies, the rally quickly lost steam. BTC/USD was rejected at the 20-day SMA, reinforcing this level as key resistance. The 200-day SMA is currently providing support, and a failure to stay above it could trigger further declines. On the other hand, a decisive break above the 20-day SMA could send Bitcoin toward the $90,000 mark.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Keeps Making Lower Highs
Ripple (XRP) also saw a significant jump after CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed that the long-running SEC lawsuit against the company had finally been resolved. This announcement propelled XRP over 10% higher to $2.58, briefly testing resistance at the 50-day SMA. However, buyers struggled to sustain momentum above this level, causing a pullback below $2.50 by the session close. Despite the decline, Ripple retains its position as the third-largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization of $146 billion.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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