Gold, on the other hand, continues to shatter records, rallying on both positive and negative economic news. The once-unthinkable $4,000 target now seems within reach as bullish momentum remains strong. Just days ago, the idea of gold hitting $4,000 by year-end was mentioned in jest, but with XAU/USD climbing to $3,057 on Wednesday, the forecast is looking increasingly realistic.
btc-usd
Forex Signals Brief March 21: Will Gold Price Hit A New High Before Weekend?
Skerdian Meta•Friday, March 21, 2025•3 min read
Gold (XAU) has been absolutely surging and today we might see another record high before the weekend, as buyers find safe havens.
The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% continued to weigh on the Swiss franc, leading to a rise in USD/CHF during the European session. Meanwhile, the Bank of England held its bank rate at 4.50% with an 8-1 vote, as expected, with Dhingra being the only member advocating for a rate cut. The BOE acknowledged notable disinflation progress, allowing for a gradual policy adjustment while maintaining a restrictive stance. This relatively less dovish tone supported the British pound, signaling that the BOE might delay rate cuts if inflationary risks persist.
In the US, existing home sales showed resilience, rising to 4.26 million in February from a revised 4.09 million in January, surpassing expectations of 3.95 million. Sales increased by 4.2% month-over-month, reflecting stronger housing market activity. However, the initial optimism from the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance did not sustain, as major US stock indices closed lower in choppy trading, though they still outperformed European equities, which saw steeper losses.
WTI crude oil climbed by approximately $2 after the US imposed sanctions on a Chinese teapot refinery and its CEO in Iran. Today’s Market Expectations
Today’s Forex Events
Japan’s core CPI came in at 2.9% year-over-year, down from 3.2% previously. Tokyo CPI, often viewed as a leading indicator for national inflation, missed expectations and edged closer to the 2.0% level.
Headline inflation dropped to 3.7% from January’s two-year high of 4.6%, while core inflation (excluding food) registered at 3.0% versus the expected 2.9%. The core-core measure, which strips out food and energy, held steady at 2.6%. These figures suggest inflationary pressures in Japan are gradually easing, potentially influencing the Bank of Japan’s policy stance.
Yesterday in currency the risk assets moved higher once again after Powell’s statement, especially commodity dollars, which caught some traders on the wrong foot. Stocks recovered as well. We opened 11 trading signals in total, ending the day with 7 winning forex signals and four losing ones.
Gold Returns Above 3,000
XAU/USD – H1 Chart
USD/CAD Rebound Fades
USD/CAD initially surged to 1.4792 after President Trump officially signed a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports into law. However, as trade negotiations led to some tariff reductions, the pair retraced to 1.4150, with traders anticipating further tariff cuts. Despite ongoing volatility, the 100-day SMA provided strong support, and a higher-than-expected Canadian CPI reading helped the pair regain upside momentum.
USD/CAD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Unable to Break the 200 Daily SMA
Bitcoin saw a sharp $5,000 rally midweek following the Federal Reserve’s dovish announcement, but despite President Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrencies, the bullish momentum was short-lived. BTC/USD was rejected at the 20-day SMA (gray), reinforcing this level as a significant resistance point. The 200-day SMA (purple) is currently acting as support at the lower end, and failure to hold above it could lead to further losses. However, a decisive break above the 20-day SMA might send Bitcoin surging toward $90,000.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Keeps Making Lower Highs
Ripple (XRP) experienced a sharp rally after CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the SEC lawsuit against the company had finally been resolved. The news propelled XRP nearly 10% higher to $2.58, briefly testing resistance at the 50-day SMA. However, buyers failed to hold momentum above this key level, leading to a pullback below $2.50 by the end of the session. Despite this decline, Ripple remains the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, valued at $146 billion.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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