GOLD surged to a new all-time high as market uncertainty persisted. For the first time, it briefly broke above the $3,000 mark, reaching $3,004.85 before pulling back slightly and ending the week lower. Despite the late drop, gold still posted a 2.5% weekly gain, reinforcing the ongoing bullish trend, which continued further this week, pushing XAU to a new record high of $3,037 yesterday.
btc-usd
Forex Brief March 19: BOJ and Fed Set to Drive Forex and Stock Market Volatility!
Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, March 19, 2025•3 min read
Today the BOJ and the FED are expected to keep rates steady, but US and Japanese stock markets may be shook by the tone of the rhetoric.
European stock markets had a strong start today, with the German DAX rising 1% after the Bundestag successfully voted on Chancellor Merz’s fiscal overhaul plan. The Trump-Putin meeting also contributed to positive sentiment, as it was expected to lay the groundwork for a 30-day ceasefire, potentially leading to a longer-term peace agreement.
Following the news, crude oil prices declined by over 1% from their daily high, settling around $66.60. However, despite these developments, U.S. stock markets ended the day in negative territory. The meeting between Trump and Putin was not enough to reverse the broader market decline in the U.S., as Wall Street remained under pressure. A report from the Wall Street Journal stating that the U.S. was considering new tariffs, including VAT adjustments, added to the negative sentiment.
Tech stocks led the downturn, with Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla seeing steep declines, dragging the Nasdaq down by 1.71% (-304.55 points) by the close. Other inflation-related data showed stronger readings, with Canada’s CPI year-over-year rising to 2.6% from 2.2%. This initially boosted the Canadian dollar by 50 pips, but gains were erased after fresh tariff news weighed on market sentiment.
Today’s Market Expectations
In monetary policy, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates at 0.50%, with Governor Ueda showing reluctance to raise rates given the economic uncertainty. Recent data has also shown signs of softness, reducing the likelihood of an imminent rate hike.
Japanese companies agreed to wage increases, though they were lower than anticipated. Market expectations for a 31 basis point tightening by the end of the year remained unchanged, with traders waiting for additional inflation data to determine the probability of rate hikes. Tokyo’s CPI recently fell closer to the 2% threshold, missing expectations.
The Federal Reserve is also expected to hold interest rates between 4.50% and 4.75%. While economic growth has been solid, recent Fed commentary has suggested a cautious stance, largely due to uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic policies. Fed Chair Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach, stating that the central bank does not feel the need to act immediately and that the cost of being patient is minimal.
Despite weaker-than-expected inflation figures last week, expectations remain high for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE. The focus will now be on the Fed’s Dot Plot, with markets closely watching to see whether the projection for 2025 rate cuts increases from two to three. Currently, markets are pricing in 70 basis points of easing by year-end.
Yesterday in currency the risk assets surged higher, especially commodity dollars, while safe havens retreated lower. Stocks were mixed. Crude oil reversed lower, and there was a fair amount of volatility in several sectors, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Gold Returns Above 3,000
XAU/USD – H1 Chart
Holding on to Our USD/CAD Long As the 100 SMA Holds As Support
Meanwhile, USD/CAD surged to a record high of 1.4792 after Trump formally signed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico into law. However, as trade negotiations progressed, some tariffs were scaled back, leading the USD/CAD to retreat to 1.4150 as traders speculated on further duty reductions or eliminations. Despite the volatility, the 100-day SMA has remained a key support level, with multiple rebounds off this point. Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected Canadian CPI inflation data further reinforced this support, prompting another rally in the currency pair.
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Unable to Break the 200 Daily SMA
BITCOIN markets remained quiet, with sentiment largely driven by uncertainty. After Donald Trump announced that Bitcoin, ETHEREUM , Solana, Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA) would be included in a planned U.S. cryptocurrency reserve, Bitcoin initially surged to $95,000. However, traders exercised caution while awaiting further policy details. Selling pressure soon resurfaced, causing Bitcoin to drop below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and briefly fall under $80,000 before attempting a rebound. Despite its recovery, Bitcoin is struggling to climb back above key moving averages.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Keeps Making Lower Highs
Although overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains mixed, RIPPLE (XRP) is showing signs of stabilization. Since peaking at $3.40 in mid-January, XRP has failed to sustain any major breakout. However, the price has established a strong support zone around $2, with an upper resistance level at $2.20. The 20-day SMA has now caught up to the price, providing consistent support over the past few weeks. Notably, XRP has never closed below this moving average, which is considered a bullish technical signal. A hammer candlestick pattern emerged on XRP’s chart last week, suggesting a possible bullish reversal. If momentum continues to build, XRP could see renewed buying demand, pushing it out of its recent consolidation range.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
Check out our free forex signals
Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
See More
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
Related Articles
Comments
Subscribe
Login
Please login to comment
0 Comments
Oldest
Sidebar rates
Add 3442
Related Posts
SaveAdd 3440
Join 350 000+ traders receiving Free Trading Signals
Alerts
Rates
Calendar
Signals