Gold Surges 14% in 2025 – Can It Break $3,030 Next?

The yellow metal has gained 14% year-to-date, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions, concerns over U.S. tariffs, and increasing bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, notes that stagflation fears have driven gold’s latest rally. He identifies $3,016 and $3,030 as key resistance levels, suggesting that gold’s short-term momentum remains bullish.

With U.S. consumer sentiment plunging and inflation expectations rising due to Trump’s sweeping tariffs, investors are turning to gold as a safe-haven asset. The Fed’s policy meeting on Wednesday will be a critical event, as markets seek clues from Chair Jerome Powell’s outlook on inflation and economic uncertainty.

Gold’s Rally: Geopolitical and Economic Catalysts

Gold’s strength stems from multiple factors, including a deteriorating global trade outlook and political instability.

• U.S. Tariff War Intensifies
  President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have rattled global markets, sparking inflation fears that could push the Fed toward rate cuts.

• Geopolitical Risks Escalate

  • Middle East Conflict: The U.S. military has vowed to continue strikes against Yemen’s Houthis, keeping shipping lanes under threat.

  • Gaza Strikes: Israeli forces have killed at least 15 Palestinians in the past 24 hours, raising regional tensions.

• Recession Warnings
  U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned on Sunday that while a full-blown recession isn’t certain, economic adjustments are likely.

Given these factors, gold’s safe-haven demand is expected to remain elevated, supporting prices in the near term.

Technical Outlook: Can Gold Hold Above $2,973?

Gold is trading in an ascending channel, supported by the 50-period EMA at $2,958. After hitting resistance at $2,994, the price has retraced to $2,973, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

• A break below $2,973 could lead to further declines toward $2,960 (38.2% Fib) and $2,950 (50% Fib).

• If bulls defend $2,973, a potential rally toward $3,009 and $3,023 is possible, with $3,030 as the next upside target.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance: $2,994, $3,009, $3,023

• Support: $2,973, $2,960, $2,950

Traders should monitor price action near these levels to confirm the next move. The upcoming FOMC meeting and Powell’s speech on Wednesday will be key catalysts for gold’s direction.

Conclusion: Will Gold Continue Its Bull Run?

Gold’s 14% gain in 2025 reflects rising uncertainty across global markets. If inflation concerns and geopolitical risks persist, gold could push past $3,030 in the near term. However, a hawkish Fed stance could trigger a short-term pullback.

For now, $2,973 remains the critical support level—holding above it keeps the bullish momentum intact, while a break lower could lead to a correction. Traders should brace for volatility ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.