XRP ETF Approval Odds at 72% – Will the SEC Give the Green Light?

According to a notice published on March 11, the next deadline has been extended to May 21, though analysts warn a final decision may not arrive until mid-October.

The delay comes despite growing institutional interest in regulated XRP investment products. Grayscale’s proposal, originally submitted in January and acknowledged by the SEC in February, is the first of its kind to reach this stage. Other major asset managers—including Canary Capital, WisdomTree, Bitwise, CoinShares, and 21Shares—have also filed XRP ETF applications, underscoring a shift toward institutional adoption.

Adding to the momentum, Franklin Templeton filed an S-1 registration with the SEC on March 11 to launch the Franklin XRP Trust. If approved, the ETF would trade on the Cboe BZX Exchange, with Coinbase Custody acting as the official custodian.

This wave of XRP ETF filings follows the massive success of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which currently manage $95 billion in assets, according to Coinglass data. The surge in applications reflects a broader market trend favoring regulated digital asset investment vehicles, offering investors alternatives to direct crypto holdings.

Will the SEC Approve an XRP ETF in 2025?

Despite the SEC’s historic reluctance to approve crypto-based ETFs—often citing regulatory uncertainty and potential market manipulation—analysts believe 2025 could mark a turning point.

According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, XRP ETFs have a 65–75% chance of approval next year, a sentiment echoed by the broader market. The cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket currently places the odds at 72%, indicating strong confidence in a favorable outcome.

Several factors contribute to this optimism:

• Legal Clarity – Ripple’s partial legal victory against the SEC in 2023 set a precedent for XRP’s classification as a non-security in certain transactions.

• Bitcoin ETF Success – The SEC’s approval of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 demonstrated a shift in regulatory stance, increasing hopes for XRP.

• Institutional Demand – Major financial firms are entering the XRP space, signaling that institutional appetite is growing despite regulatory hurdles.

However, some concerns remain. The SEC has historically taken a cautious approach toward crypto ETFs, and further delays or rejections could stifle market momentum in the short term.

XRP Price Faces Resistance at $2.25

Alongside regulatory developments, XRP’s price action remains a critical factor for investors. Currently trading at $2.17, XRP is struggling to break above a key downward trendline at $2.25.

Technical indicators suggest that the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.28 is reinforcing resistance, capping upside momentum. If XRP clears this level, it could rally toward $2.46, with a further push bringing $2.63 into play.

However, failure to breach $2.25 could send XRP lower, with immediate support at $1.98, followed by $1.76. A break below these levels would expose the asset to further downside, potentially testing $1.58.

Key Takeaways:

• XRP ETFs have a 72% approval probability by 2025, driven by institutional demand.

• The SEC’s final decision on Grayscale’s XRP ETF could be delayed until October.

• XRP faces strong resistance at $2.25 and $2.28 (50 EMA), with downside risks toward $1.98.

As regulatory clarity unfolds and market trends shift, XRP investors are watching closely. Whether the SEC follows its Bitcoin ETF precedent or maintains a cautious stance remains the biggest question.