The tariff delays contributed to USD weakness, boosting the euro and allowing EUR/USD to recover from near-parity levels. Over the past week, the euro outperformed all major currencies, gaining four cents to a four-month high above 1.08. Notably, EUR/USD broke above all major daily moving averages for the first time since November, signaling a potential shift in market momentum.
btc-usd
Forex Signals Brief March 12: Jump in Egg Prices Unlikely to Impact CPI Inflation Data Today
Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, March 12, 2025•4 min read
Today we have the US CPI inflation and BOC rate meeting, which will likely increase market volatility on top of tariff uncertainty.
Stock market volatility persisted as major U.S. indices closed lower, with any temporary rallies being met with selling pressure. While most large tech stocks stabilized after yesterday’s disappointing earnings, Apple and Oracle were exceptions, continuing to decline.
The broader market was affected by ongoing uncertainty surrounding Canadian tariffs and peace talks in Ukraine, which led to sharp fluctuations throughout the session. Although stocks briefly turned positive in the final hours of trading, the gains were short-lived.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 478.23 points (-1.14%), the S&P 500 fell 42.49 points (-0.76%), and the Nasdaq lost 32.23 points (-0.18%). The situation in Ukraine remained a key focus, with high-level talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia leading to a ceasefire proposal from Ukraine, which was accepted. President Trump later stated that he intends to call Vladimir Putin this week to assess Russia’s stance and determine the next steps.
In commodities, WTI crude oil rose by $1, while gold rebounded above $2,900 once again. The forex market also saw notable moves, with the EUR/USD reaching a new high of 1.0947, while USD/CAD surged 1.5 cents higher following the tariff announcement before retreating after the meeting. Cryptocurrencies also experienced gains, reflecting a shift in risk sentiment.
In the forex market, the Australian dollar saw a minor 0.5-cent gain against the U.S. dollar last week, but this move was insignificant compared to the 4-cent rallies in the Euro and British Pound. Despite a strong February rebound, largely due to U.S. dollar weakness, AUD/USD remains under pressure after an 8-cent decline in Q4 2024. The pair briefly dipped below 0.61 earlier in February before rebounding above 0.64 due to a delay in U.S. trade tariffs. However, the 100-day SMA acted as resistance, preventing further gains and pushing AUD/USD lower once again.
Cryptocurrency markets remained highly volatile, heavily influenced by uncertainty over global trade policies and regulations. Bitcoin initially surged to $95,000 after Donald Trump announced the creation of a U.S. cryptocurrency reserve, which would include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA). The 200-day simple moving average provided support, but traders remained cautious while awaiting further policy details. Selling pressure soon returned, and by Tuesday last week, Bitcoin had fallen below the 200-day SMA again, eventually dropping below $80,000 and surpassing February’s low of $78,500, marking its lowest level since November 11.
Ripple’s XRP experienced a sharp rally in early March, jumping from $2 to nearly $3 in response to speculation that it could be added to the proposed U.S. National Cryptocurrency Reserve. However, uncertainty quickly led to a reversal, with XRP retreating alongside the broader crypto market downturn. Despite this pullback, XRP found strong buying interest at the $2 support level yesterday, rebounding to $2.20, confirming continued accumulation at this key price zone.
Today’s Market Expectations
Inflation data in the U.S. showed some improvement, with core CPI month-over-month expectations revised down to 0.3% from 0.4%. Year-over-year CPI is forecasted at 2.9%, slightly below the previous 3.0%, while month-over-month CPI is expected at 0.3% compared to the previous 0.5%. Although inflation remained elevated in January, it was lower than last year’s levels. Prescription medications, used cars, auto insurance, and recreational services saw price increases, though some of these pressures eased in February. Food prices remained a key inflation driver, with little improvement in egg prices, according to USDA weekly data. However, gasoline prices rose less than the seasonal norm, helping ease inflationary concerns.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hold rates steady, despite speculation about a 25 basis point rate cut. The growing economic risks posed by U.S.-imposed tariffs may lead the BoC to delay further rate cuts until the full impact becomes clear. On the political front, Mark Carney defeated Justin Trudeau in the Liberal Party leadership contest to become Canada’s next prime minister, a move that could influence economic and monetary policy decisions.
Yesterday the volatility in some markets such as equities and cryptocurrencies was pretty high, and we saw a coupe of reversals in forex and commodities such as Gold and crude Oil. That got traders on the wrong foot and we had three losing signals, however we closed 4 winning forex signals as well, after 7 trades during yesterday.
Gold Returns Below 2,900
Gold saw a brief recovery after its sharp February decline, reclaiming the $2,900 level before pulling back. While it has struggled to hold new highs, demand remains strong in both risk-on and risk-off market conditions. Over the past two days, gold rose above $2,915, with buyers stepping in near the $2,832 support level.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
MAs Keeping AUD/USD Down
AUD/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Breaks Faces the 200 Daily SMA As Resistance Now
Cryptocurrency markets remained highly volatile, heavily influenced by uncertainty over global trade policies and regulations. Bitcoin initially surged to $95,000 after Donald Trump announced the creation of a U.S. cryptocurrency reserve, which would include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA). The 200-day simple moving average provided support, but traders remained cautious while awaiting further policy details. Selling pressure soon returned, and by Tuesday last week, Bitcoin had fallen below the 200-day SMA again, eventually dropping below $80,000 and surpassing February’s low of $78,500 but yesterday we saw a strong reversal.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Bounces Off the $2 Level Again
Following Trump’s announcement that Ripple, Solana, and Cardano would be added to the national crypto reserve, XRP initially surged 50%. However, despite spiking toward $3, it failed to sustain momentum and sharply fell back to $2.2150. The broader recovery in risk assets later helped XRP climb back to $2.50, but for further upside, a break above $3 is necessary. If XRP fails to hold above $2.20, another wave of selling could push it closer to the $2 mark, where it currently faces strong pressure.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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