No Fed Rate Cuts in 2025? Why It Could Trigger a 33% Bitcoin Drop
The Fed not cutting rates in 2025 could be the trigger for a big market crash, warns network economist Timothy Peterson.
His numbers say Bitcoin (BTC) could go as low as $57,000 if the broader market crashes hard. But historical trends suggest a bottom closer to $70,000 as traders step in before the full correction happens.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a March 7 speech in New York, “We don’t have to be in a hurry and we’re well positioned to wait for more clarity.” Peterson thinks if the Fed holds that stance through 2025 it could be the catalyst for the next bear market.
Bitcoin’s Decline with Nasdaq Weakness
Peterson, author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, has modeled market movements based on Nasdaq trends. His numbers say if Nasdaq drops 17% in 7 months, Bitcoin will drop 33%, with a 1.9x multiplier.
Nasdaq estimated drop: 17%
Bitcoin projected decline: 33%
Potential BTC bottom: $57,000
But Peterson thinks a full drop to $57,000 is unlikely because of buying interest at lower levels. He references past market cycles, particularly the 2022 bear market when everyone expected a $12,000 bottom and got a $16,000 floor.
Market Sentiment and Historical Patterns
Peterson’s numbers match up with other forecasts from industry heavyweights. In January 2025, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin could correct to $70K-$75K before rebounding to $250K by year-end.
Blockware Solutions projected a bear case of $150,000 for Bitcoin if the Fed shifts to easing later in the year.
Historically, Bitcoin has held up well in downturns:
- In 2022, BTC bottomed at $16,000—25% above the expected $12,000.
- 25% up from $57,000 is a possible floor around $71,000.
- Bitcoin traded at $71K in November 2024 before surging to $100K in December.
If the Fed holds rates tight, markets will be tough but Bitcoin is still a buy. Buckle up and watch the macro.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
See More
Sidebar rates
Related Posts
SaveAdd 3440
Join 350 000+ traders receiving Free Trading Signals
Alerts
Rates
Calendar
Signals