Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes $3,000 as U.S. Dollar Weakens Ahead of Key Data

Gold prices are inching higher, trading near $2,917, as the U.S. dollar weakens ahead of a crucial non-farm payrolls report.

The Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near a four-month low after the U.S. government announced a temporary exemption on 25% tariffs for automakers in Canada and Mexico. Investors see this as a potential delay in escalating trade wars, leading to a softer dollar, which in turn boosts gold prices.

According to Jigar Trivedi, a senior analyst at Reliance Securities, gold’s broad momentum remains strong. “A delay in the tariff war has pushed the dollar lower, and because of that, gold is supported,” he said. This sentiment is reinforced by gold’s 11% year-to-date gain, with the metal hitting a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24.

Traders are closely watching the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a gain of 160,000 jobs in February. A weaker-than-expected report could raise bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, further lifting gold’s appeal.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Resistance at $2,930 in Focus

Gold’s price action remains locked within a symmetrical triangle, indicating an impending breakout. The 50-day EMA at $2,903 is acting as dynamic support, maintaining the bullish structure.

• Key Resistance Levels:

  • $2,930 – Immediate resistance; a breakout could open the door to $2,957

  • $2,982 – Strong resistance, aligning with the February highs

  • $3,000 – Psychological barrier that could be tested on sustained momentum

• Key Support Levels:

  • $2,897 – First support zone

  • $2,859 – Deeper correction point if selling pressure increases

A break above $2,930 could drive a bullish run toward $2,957 and beyond. However, failure to break resistance may trigger a pullback toward $2,897, with a potential decline to $2,859 if downside momentum intensifies.

What’s Next for Gold? Key Catalysts to Watch

Gold remains a safe-haven asset, benefiting from geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continue to strain relations with China, Canada, and Mexico, fueling market anxiety. While Canada and China have imposed retaliatory tariffs, Mexico has promised to respond, adding further uncertainty.

Meanwhile, investors are watching for clues from the Federal Reserve on future interest rate policy. If economic data weakens, expectations for Fed rate cuts could increase, supporting gold. A strong ISM Services PMI or non-farm payrolls report could, however, reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, potentially limiting gold’s upside.

Key Takeaways:

• Gold trades at $2,917, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and trade tensions.

• Resistance at $2,930 remains key; a breakout could push gold toward $2,957-$3,000.

• Non-farm payrolls data will be crucial in shaping gold’s next move.

If market uncertainty persists and rate cut expectations grow, gold could make another attempt at $3,000 in the coming weeks.