Meanwhile, AUD/USD struggled to sustain gains, despite briefly rising above 0.6250 in February. The 50-day SMA acted as strong resistance, preventing further upside. Since late January, moving averages have consistently pressured the pair lower, making it difficult for bulls to regain control. In February, AUD/USD broke below 0.61, falling to levels last seen in 2020, during the peak of the COVID-19 crisis. The continued failure to break resistance indicates persistent bearish sentiment in the market, however the weak USD helped this pair yesterday, sending it above the 50 daily SMA.
btc-usd
Forex Signals Brief March 5: Tariff Talk Shaking Crypto & Stock Markets Again
Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, March 5, 2025•3 min read
The tariffs talk has taken center stage, rattling forex, crypto and the stock market, which will keep driving them today on top of US ADP employment and Services data.
Trade tariff concerns continued to dominate financial markets, leading to another volatile session. With the U.S. imposing tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, investor sentiment turned bearish, driving a flight to safety. Lutnick reaffirmed a hard stance on fentanyl and trade, shutting down any expectations of a policy reversal.
As a result, the S&P 500 broke below its January low, erasing all post-election gains and signaling a deteriorating technical outlook. The Dow Jones tumbled 2.55% (-1,114 points), the S&P 500 dropped 1.22%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.35%, as major tech stocks struggled to hold key support levels.
Later in the session, Lutnick hinted that tariffs could be lifted if Canada and Mexico complied with U.S. demands, leading to a strong market rebound. Riskier assets, including stocks and commodities, regained ground. The Australian (AUD) and New Zealand dollars (NZD) surged, while the Canadian dollar (CAD) managed a slight gain.
The euro also strengthened, supported by Germany’s increased government spending, and the GBP also saw strong gains. In the commodities market, crude oil continued to decline, briefly falling below $67 before staging a late-session recovery.
Today’s Market Expectations
The trading day started with the release of Australia’s Q4 2024 GDP report, which showed better-than-expected economic growth. Quarterly GDP expanded by 0.6%, surpassing the forecasted 0.5% and marking a notable improvement from Q3’s 0.3% growth. On an annual basis, GDP rose 1.3%, slightly ahead of the 1.2% estimate, while the previous annual reading stood at 0.8%.
On the macroeconomic front, Switzerland’s CPI for February is expected to rise 0.5%, while the Core CPI climbed to 0.9% from 0.7% in the previous reading. Markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in March, with a 60% chance of another cut by year-end.
In the U.S., ADP employment data is forecasted to show 140K new jobs, up from 183K previously. Given growing economic concerns, weaker-than-expected job numbers could further weigh on sentiment, while strong data may support risk assets.
The ISM Services PMI is projected at 52.9, slightly higher than the previous 52.8 reading. However, the S&P Global survey indicated significant weakness, with the index plunging to a 25-month low. The report cited declining activity, weaker new orders, and political uncertainty as major factors impacting service sector growth. Concerns over government spending cuts and inflation-related policy effects continue to shape economic projections moving forward.
The stock and cryptocurrency markets saw tremendous volatility yesterday, which caught many traders on the wrong side, after several brutal price reversals. The FX pairs and crude oil were pretty affected. We consequently opened a lot of trading signals and closed 9 trades in all marketplaces before the end of the day. Four of them ended up as winning forex signals, while five of our forex signals were losing ones.
Gold Rebound Continues
Gold maintained its upward momentum, adding $25 to reclaim the $2,900 level. After hitting all-time highs above $2,956, gold experienced a sharp drop in February but remains in demand in both risk-on and risk-off scenarios. A key support level around $2,832 has drawn buyers back into the market, with recent technical indicators signaling a potential recovery. GOLD has turned bullish in the past two days, climbing above $2,915 as buying interest increases.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
Weaker USD Helping the AUD
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Rebounds
BITCOIN also experienced heightened volatility. After reaching a record high of nearly $110K on Trump’s inauguration day, BTC/USD slipped below $100K in February before plunging under $80K last Friday. A strong bounce off the 200-day SMA (purple) sent BTC back to $95K, but sellers regained control, driving prices below $82K yesterday, erasing most gains from Trump’s crypto reserve announcement. The 200-day SMA provided support once again, triggering a $5,000 rebound, though it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin can sustain this recovery.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Finds Support at the $2.20 Support Level
In the crypto sector, XRP surged 50% on Sunday, fueled by Donald Trump’s announcement of a national cryptocurrency reserve that would include Ripple (XRP). After bouncing off the $2 support level on Friday, XRP climbed above key moving averages and reached $3 resistance on Sunday. However, buyers failed to break through, leading to a sharp reversal that dragged XRP/USD down to $2.2150. A late-session rally followed as rumors suggested that the U.S. might lift trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico, boosting risk sentiment and pushing XRP back above $2.50. For bullish momentum to continue, buyers must break past the $3 resistance level, while a drop below $2 could lead to further downside.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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