Forex Signals Brief March 3: Short on CAD, Euro, Long on Crypto!
March started great already with a crypto surge thanks to Trump, who will likely keep the CAD and EUR/USD heavy this week, adding to the ECB rate cut.
This Week’s Market Expectations
The EUR/USD will be under scrutiny this week, as the Tariffs which are expected to start tomorrow will likely keep the USD bullish, while the ECB is expected to deliver another 25 bps rate cut, which will weigh on the Euro, particularly if this is a dovish cut. But, with tariffs coming, the CAD and Mexican Peso will also be pretty weak.
Upcoming Economic Events & Key Market Drivers
Monday, March 4
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI – Key indicator of China’s factory activity.
- Eurozone Flash CPI Inflation– Crucial for ECB policy outlook; inflation trends in focus.
- Canada Manufacturing PMI – Signals economic conditions in Canada’s industrial sector.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Major gauge of US manufacturing strength.
Tuesday, March 5
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate – Labor market stability and ECB considerations.
- Canada-Mexico-China Tariffs Deadline – Potential market volatility if new trade measures are imposed.
- Donald Trump Congress Speech – Key for policy insights on economy, tariffs, and crypto stance.
Wednesday, March 6
- China Two-Sessions Meeting – Government policy announcements and economic direction.
- Australia Q4 GDP – Growth trends and potential RBA policy implications.
- China Caixin Services PMI – Health of China’s services sector.
- Switzerland CPI – Inflation data critical for SNB rate policy.
- US ADP Employment Report – Private sector job growth; a leading indicator for NFP.
- US ISM Services PMI – Key insight into US economic health.
Thursday, March 7
- China Two-Sessions (Continued) – Further economic and policy updates.
- Switzerland Unemployment Rate – Labor market conditions.
- Eurozone Retail Sales – Consumer spending trends in the EU.
- ECB Policy Meeting – Major event; possible rate cut discussion.
- US Jobless Claims – Weekly labor market snapshot.
Friday, March 8
- Canada Employment Report – Labor market health, potential CAD volatility.
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – Most significant labor market report; potential USD impact.
Extended Insights:
- Trump’s Congress speech and the ECB policy decision could heavily influence EUR/USD movements.
- Tariff decisions on Canada, Mexico, and China may add market volatility across multiple asset classes.
- China’s Two-Sessions meeting is critical for global economic sentiment and commodity markets, especially given Beijing’s influence on supply chains and trade policies.
- US NFP and ADP data will set expectations for Fed rate policy, impacting USD strength and global market sentiment.
Last week started slow but the volatility picked up quickly as USD buyers returned again, sending Gold and EUR/USD plunging lower, with some massive declines, which should have caught many gold traders on the wrong side. Cryptocurrencies continued to decline, while stock markets closed mixed, while Gold continued to crawl higher after Tuesday’s decline.
Gold Bounces Off MAs
Since Q4 2023, GOLD has been on a consistent upward trajectory, breaking past $2,000 and setting multiple all-time highs in 2024. Earlier this week, it surged beyond $2,956, reaching another record before experiencing a sharp decline. The flash drop pushed prices below the 200 SMA, and gold ended the week trading under $2,900. Despite this pullback, demand remains strong as gold continues to attract buyers in both risk-on and risk-off market conditions.
For traders considering re-entering the gold market, this recent dip could provide a buying opportunity. A key support zone has formed near Friday’s low of $2,832, making it a potential entry point for long positions. The formation of a pin candlestick suggests a possible bullish reversal, while technical indicators such as the weekly stochastic oscillator indicate that gold is currently oversold, reinforcing the case for a rebound.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
EUR/USD Breaks Below the 50 Daily SMA
EUR/USD has been under pressure against the US dollar since October of last year, primarily due to a stronger USD. The price dipped below 1.02 in January, but reversed higher and retraced above the 1.05 level. However, buyers were unable to hold the price above that level which indicated a bearish reversal, which finally came last week as we had predicted. We decided to open a sell EUR/USD signal below the 100 daily SMA (green) which acted as resistance, and booked profit last week as the price tumbled below 1.04.
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Bounces Back Toward $100K
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is seeing a strong recovery after a volatile February.
remains under selling pressure for the third consecutive day. On Monday, BTC/USD broke below the 100-day SMA (green), a critical support level that had held since February. It also breached the $90,000 support, which had been solid since late December. While a short-term recovery occurred due to support from the 200-day SMA (red) near $86,000, bearish pressure has returned today. Bitcoin is once again testing the 200 SMA, and a rebound could follow if this level holds. However, if it fails, the path could open for a further decline toward the $80,000 region. 
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Price Approaches $3
Ripple fell under $2, triggering a wave of negative sentiment. However, today’s rally across digital assets followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a Crypto Strategic Reserve, a plan to integrate more cryptocurrencies into the financial system. As a result, XRP has surged 50% higher, aligning with our Friday forecast. Despite the strong push, $3 has emerged as a temporary resistance level, slowing XRP’s momentum. However, if buyers manage to break through this psychological barrier, the next major target will be January’s high of $3.40. Given the renewed enthusiasm in the crypto sector and Trump’s pro-crypto stance, XRP appears well-positioned for another potential leg higher.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
See More
Sidebar rates
Related Posts
SaveAdd 3440
Join 350 000+ traders receiving Free Trading Signals
Alerts
Rates
Calendar
Signals