Forex Signals Brief February 27: Tariffs Coming, Can US GDP Improve the Sentiment?
US president Donald Trump confirmed upcoming tariffs yesterday. while today we have the US and Swiss GDP reports.
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Yesterday started with the CPI inflation from Australia, with the headline CPI missing expectations of 2.6% and remaining at 2.5%, however, the trimmed mean CPI ticked higher, but that couldn’t help the AUD, which slipped lower on negative risk sentiment in financial markets. That escalated the decline in cryptocurrencies though, with Bitcoin dipping below $83K, while XRP closed below $2.20.
U.S. new home sales declined to an annualized pace of 657K, falling short of the expected 680K. The Federal Reserve’s persistent high interest rates continue to weigh on the housing market, with single-family sales plunging by 10.5%. Meanwhile, home prices rose by 3.7% month-over-month, reaching $446,300.
In the energy sector, weekly crude oil data reported an unexpected inventory draw of -2,332K barrels, contrary to the anticipated build of 2,605K. Despite this, crude oil prices continued their downward trajectory as geopolitical tensions eased following Donald Trump’s involvement in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
At a press conference after his cabinet meeting, President Trump discussed his economic and trade policies, reaffirming his commitment to balancing the U.S. budget within one to two years. He also reiterated plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada starting in March. His stance on China was mixed, acknowledging the country as a competitor while emphasizing a positive relationship with President Xi. Trump expressed a desire for mutual investment between the U.S. and China, highlighting potential economic collaboration.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair struggled to maintain gains above 1.05, reflecting market uncertainty. We also had the Nvidia earnings in the evening, which showed another decent beat, sending the NVDA stock 5% higher in total, while the main US indices closed little changed.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today we have two GDP reports, early in the morning the Swiss GDP report for Q4 will be released, followed by the second reading for the US GDP. The Swiss GDP is expected at 0.2% from 0.4% previously, which shows a slowdown in the Swiss economy, while the US prelim GDP is expected to remain unchanged at 2.3%.
U.S. Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders
Initial jobless claims for the week are expected to come in at 220K, slightly above the previous 219K. However, there is no consensus yet for continuing claims, which climbed to 1,869K last week from 1,845K. Although continuing claims remain near cycle highs, initial claims have stayed within the 200K–260K range since 2022, signaling a relatively stable labor market.
Durable goods orders are forecast to rise by 2.0% month-over-month, recovering from the previous -2.2% decline. Core durable goods orders are expected to post a modest gain of 0.4%, compared to 0.3% previously. The recent volatility in durable goods data is largely attributed to fluctuations in aircraft orders, with analysts from Wells Fargo pointing to a decline in Boeing’s net orders due to strike-related disruptions. Additionally, manufacturers may be stockpiling imported components in response to potential tariff risks, which could be contributing to the rebound in durable goods orders.
Yesterday USD buyers returned again, although volatility was low, so the gains were small. Cryptocurrencies continued to decline, while stock markets closed mixed, while Gold continued to crawl higher after Tuesday’s decline.
Gold Finds Support at the 20 SMA Before the Next Assault higher
Gold’s recent rise on the H4 chart hit resistance after surpassing the 20 and 50 SMAs, which had acted as support since early 2025. The price then stabilized at the 100 SMA. Over the past year, gold has surged by nearly 50%, climbing from around $2,000 at the start of 2024. This rally has been fueled by fluctuating risk sentiment, with investors consistently pushing gold to record highs. On Monday, GOLD reached a new milestone, surpassing $2,956 while maintaining support at key moving averages. Despite a sharp bearish reversal that brought the price below $2,900, it bounced back off the 100 SMA, climbing $20 once again.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
AUD/USD Resumes Decline
Since October of last year, the AUD/USD pair has been under pressure, primarily due to a stronger U.S. dollar. The 20 SMA on the weekly chart acted as resistance, and despite a brief recovery in February, the pair struggled to hold above the 0.64 level. The stochastic indicator suggests overbought conditions, and the pair has remained below 0.64 for the past two weeks. Earlier this month, AUD/USD fell below 0.61, breaking the lows from 2022 and reaching levels not seen since the 2020 pandemic peak. However, as the U.S. dollar weakened, a strong recovery occurred, partially due to tariff concerns easing.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Falls Below $85k
Bitcoin is experiencing its third consecutive day of losses, with fresh selling pressure weighing on the price. On Monday, BTC/USD dropped below the 100-day SMA (green), a key support level that had held since February. The price also breached the $90K support zone, which had been intact since late December. The 200-day SMA (red), just below $86K, provided short-term support, leading to a minor recovery by the end of the U.S. session. However, selling pressure resumed today, and BITCOIN is once again testing the 200 SMA. If the 200 SMA holds, Bitcoin may see a rebound, but if it fails to provide support, a further decline toward the $80,000 level could follow.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Heads for $2,000 Again
Ethereum, which surged above $4,000 in late 2024, has also faced significant selling pressure. On Monday, ETH experienced a flash crash, briefly dropping below $2,000 and halving its value. However, ETHEREUM has managed to hold above the critical $2,000 support level, despite the bearish sentiment. Nonetheless, we are returning to that are again now.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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