Forex Signals Brief February 24: Nvidia Earnings Take Center Stage This Week
This week the forex calendar is light, so the Nvidia earnings report will likely be the highlight of the week, particularly if it misses expectations.
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Last week we had two central banks lowering interest rates, the RBA delivered a 25 bps hawkish rate cut, while the RBNZ delivered a 50 bps dovish rate cut. But, they had little impact on the AUD and the NZD as the market sentiment was driven by other factors.
Stock markets continued to remain bullish early in the week, with the S&P 500 and Dax 40 reaching new record highs, but they went through a harsh reversal during the second part of the week, with some major companies stocks falling around 10%, such as Amazon and Meta stock.
Crude Oil was also bullish during most of the week, rebounding from $70 and approaching $74, as Donald Trump repeated refilling the SPR Oil reserve, but we saw a swift reversal on Friday, returning the WTI price to $70, which points to a bearish break soon. Currencies remained mostly in a tight range, as did cryptocurrencies.
This Week’s Market Expectations
This week started with the German federal elections, which showed that the AfD party doubled to 20%. However, the highlight will likely be the release on the earnings report from Nvidia on Thursday.
Key Upcoming Economic Events
Monday: German IFO Business Climate Index
- Measures business sentiment and economic outlook in Germany.
- A key indicator of economic health in the Eurozone’s largest economy.
- Stronger-than-expected data could boost EUR, while weak data may weigh on market sentiment.
Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence Report
- Provides insight into consumer sentiment and future spending patterns.
- A higher reading signals economic strength and may support the USD and stock markets.
- A weaker report could indicate slowing consumer demand, raising concerns about economic momentum.
Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI
- Tracks inflation trends, influencing RBA interest rate decisions.
- A higher-than-expected inflation print may push the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) toward a more hawkish stance.
- Lower inflation may ease rate hike concerns and pressure the AUD.
Thursday: Key Economic Data from Switzerland & US
- Switzerland Q4 GDP: Offers insights into economic growth, affecting CHF valuations.
- US Durable Goods Orders: A measure of business investment; strong numbers signal economic resilience.
- US Q4 GDP (2nd Estimate): A revision of previous growth data; a surprise revision may impact equities and USD.
- US Jobless Claims: Tracks labor market strength; rising claims could signal weakness and impact Fed policy expectations.
Friday: Inflation & GDP Data from Major Economies
- Tokyo CPI (Japan): Key inflation indicator affecting BOJ policy decisions.
- France CPI & Germany CPI: Provide inflation trends for major Eurozone economies; strong data may influence ECB rate policy.
- Canada GDP: Determines economic performance, impacting Bank of Canada (BoC) rate outlook.
- US PCE Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; a hotter-than-expected print could reinforce higher-for-longer rate policies.
Conclusion: Market Impact & Key Takeaways
This week’s economic data releases could significantly impact forex, equities, and bond markets. Key focus areas include:
- Inflation prints (CPI & PCE): Crucial for central bank rate decisions (Fed, ECB, BOJ, RBA).
- GDP figures: Indicators of economic strength or slowdown (US, Switzerland, Canada).
- US Consumer Confidence & Jobless Claims: Provide insight into economic momentum.
The financial markets continue to face economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and shifting central bank policies. Gold remains in a strong uptrend, USD/JPY’s breach of key support suggests further weakness, Bitcoin must break above $100,000 to regain its bullish trend, and Ethereum’s ability to hold $2,000 will be crucial for its future direction. Investors should prepare for continued market volatility across commodities, forex, and cryptocurrencies.
MAs Consolidates at the Highs
Gold continues to attract investors as a safe-haven asset, with demand increasing amid financial market volatility. In early February, gold surged to $1,942 before pulling back, but key moving averages provided support and prevented a more significant decline. The formation of higher lows suggests that buyers remain in control, reinforcing the bullish momentum. Yesterday, gold reached an all-time high of $2,947, driven by growing economic uncertainty and fears of a global trade war. These concerns have fueled demand for safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices to record levels.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
USD/JPY Slips Below 149
USD/JPY experienced a strong rally from 140 in September to 159 in January, marking a nearly 20-cent increase. However, the currency pair has been declining for over a month. On the daily chart, the 200-day SMA initially acted as a support level, but yesterday, this moving average was broken, causing USD/JPY to drop below 150. This breach of a key support level raises concerns that further weakness may follow as traders reassess market conditions.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Remains Stuck Between MAs
Bitcoin remains less volatile, without significant price swings after it reached an all-time high of nearly $100,000 before the end of 2024 but faced sharp declines afterward. On January 20, the day of Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin surged to $109,867 but struggled to hold onto these highs.
Following Trump’s tariff announcement in early February, BTC/USD initially fell below $90,000 before rebounding above $100,000, yet it has struggled to maintain momentum. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate between the 50-day SMA, which acts as resistance, and the 100-day SMA, which serves as support. A breakout above $100,000 is necessary to retest the highs seen in January.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Buyers Overcome the 20 Daily SMA
Ethereum has been under significant selling pressure since surpassing $4,000 in late 2024. A flash crash on Monday saw ETH plummet below $2,000, cutting its value nearly in half before staging a partial recovery. Despite bearish sentiment, Ethereum has managed to hold above the crucial $2,000 support level. If market conditions improve, Ethereum could regain upward momentum and move toward higher price levels.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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