Bitcoin Hovers Near $96,000 as Volatility Hits Multi-Year Lows; Strategy Signals Fresh Buying
Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range around $96,000, with implied volatility reaching historically low levels as the cryptocurrency market digests recent developments, including the Bybit exchange hack and potential new institutional buying.
Despite recent market volatility, BTC/USD has kept very constant price movement; traders have observed a notable compression in volatility. Glassnode data shows that the one-week realized volatility of Bitcoin has plummeted to 23.42%, almost reaching levels not seen since late 2024. Such strong volatility compression has past preceded significant market swings.
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Strategy Hints at Expanded Bitcoin Position
Based on CEO Michael Saylor’s revised chart of the company’s Bitcoin treasury, Strategy—formerly MicroStrategy—appears ready to boost its significant Bitcoin holdings. Currently valued at nearly $46 billion, the company—which owns 478,740 BTC—recently finished a $2 billion convertible note offering to support more purchases. On February 10, Strategy bought 7,633 BTC for roughly $742 million most recently.
BlackRock recently raised its share to 5%, indicating the notable institutional interest the company’s Bitcoin-oriented approach has drawn. Twelve U.S. states also continue to be exposed to Strategy through their pension systems and treasury funds; California’s teachers’ retirement fund leads with around $83 million in Strategy shares.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis Points to Key Levels
While finding support around $93,388, the present technical structure indicates Bitcoin encountering difficulty at the 50-day simple moving average ($98,933). With the relative strength index (RSI) lingering below the midpoint, the 20-day exponential moving average ($97,236) is displaying a small downward slope suggesting bears have a marginal advantage.
Traders are closely watching several critical price levels:
- Resistance at $106,000 could trigger a new round of price discovery if breached
- Support at $92,000-$94,000 remains crucial for maintaining current levels
- A breakdown could see Bitcoin testing $85,000, according to some analysts
Bitcoin Future Outlook
Even with the present range-bound trading, institutional acceptance keeps improving Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Citing growing institutional adoption, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has raised her hope in Bitcoin reaching $1.5 million by 2030.
With Bitcoin able to surpass the psychological $100,000 barrier, the immediate future might rely on $102,500 as the next notable resistance level. Still wary, traders point out that a break below present support levels might set off a more pronounced decline towards the $90,000 mark.
Suggesting a possible reset in market positioning that might precede the next major movement, trading volumes and open interest across exchanges have dropped to levels not seen since early February.
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