Brent Crude Eyes $76 in 2025? USOIL Key Price Drivers You Need to Know
Brent crude prices climbed on Tuesday, building on earlier gains following a drone attack on a key oil pumping station in Russia that disrupted supply flows from Kazakhstan.
The attack on the Kropotkinskaya station, located in Russiaโs Krasnodar region, temporarily reduced shipments operated by Western firms Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), as confirmed by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.
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Despite this bullish catalyst, market expectations of increasing supply from OPEC+ and Russia are keeping gains in check. Analysts at IG Markets believe the recent rebound reflects a reversal of short-term bearish sentiment rather than a fundamental shift in oil markets.
โThe market remains cautious, particularly with the uncertainty surrounding Chinaโs economic outlook and its impact on global demand,โ said Yeap Jun Rong, a strategist at IG Markets.
OPEC+ Supply Plan and Chinaโs Demand Uncertainty
One of the biggest concerns for oil bulls is the anticipated rise in supply from OPEC+ starting in April 2025. According to a report from Russian state media, the alliance has no plans to delay its previously announced monthly production increases.
Last December, OPEC+ pushed back its scheduled output hike from January to April, citing weak demand and rising non-OPEC supply. However, with demand concerns still lingeringโparticularly in Chinaโthere is speculation that additional production could put further downward pressure on prices.
Meanwhile, BMI analysts forecast Brent crude to average $76 per barrel in 2025, a 5% decline from the 2024 average. They cite market oversupply, tariffs, and global trade tensions as the primary drivers of this expected pullback.
WTI Crude Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
WTI crude is currently trading at $71.42, up 0.07%, as traders assess near-term resistance levels. Price action remains within a descending channel, reinforcing a broader bearish trend. However, a breakout above $71.98 could signal a reversal and drive prices higher.
Immediate resistance sits at $71.98, followed by $72.81 and $73.63.
Support levels to watch include $71.13, $70.09, and $69.34.
The 50-day EMA at $71.25 acts as a key support level, offering stability in case of downside pressure.
A decisive move above $72.81 would strengthen the bullish case, while failure to hold above key support could lead to further losses. Geopolitical developments, demand expectations, and supply forecasts will remain critical drivers for crude oil prices in the coming weeks.
Key Takeaways:
Drone strike on Russian pipeline disrupts Kazakh oil exports, lifting prices.
OPEC+ supply increases in April could limit Brentโs upside potential.
WTI crude eyes $71.98 resistance, with $71.25 as key support.
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