Oil Prices Stuck at $70 as Russia-Ukraine Talks & U.S. Tariffs Weigh

Brent crude hovered near $74.80, while WTI crude struggled to break above $70.75 per barrel.

With discussions underway between President Donald Trump’s administration and Russian officials, the possibility of a resolution to the ongoing Ukraine conflict has raised concerns about increased Russian oil supply. Meanwhile, the looming threat of retaliatory tariffs is keeping investors cautious as uncertainty clouds global trade flows.

Russia-Ukraine Talks Could Shake Up Oil Markets

The oil market is closely tracking diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. President Trump signaled that negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin could take place “very soon,” with initial talks set to begin in Saudi Arabia in the coming days.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that Ukraine and European leaders would be integral to any peace agreement, adding that upcoming discussions would test Russia’s commitment to diplomacy. If negotiations succeed, sanctions on Russian oil could ease, potentially flooding global markets with additional supply and pressuring prices downward.

Phillip Nova’s senior analyst Priyanka Sachdeva warned that “if negotiations lead to a resolution, more Russian barrels would enter global supplies, which could significantly impact oil prices negatively.”

Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Market Sentiment

While geopolitical factors remain a key driver, the risk of a global trade war is another factor weighing on oil prices. President Trump has directed U.S. commerce and economic officials to explore reciprocal tariffs against nations imposing trade restrictions on American goods. Recommendations are expected by April 1.

Concerns over potential retaliatory measures have kept oil prices in check, even as demand indicators remain stable. “Despite bearish developments, the near-term outlook for oil looks somewhat supported by positive demand trends,” Sachdeva added.

Additionally, Baker Hughes reported that U.S. energy firms added oil and gas rigs for a third consecutive week, a sign of growing domestic production. The total rig count rose by two, reaching 588 as of February 14, marking the first sustained increase since December 2023.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – February 17, 2025

WTI crude oil is currently trading at $70.76, posting a modest 0.08% gain. The price remains within a descending channel, signaling persistent bearish pressure in the market.

After failing to hold above $71.36, WTI is now testing support near $70.10. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward $69.34 and $68.49. On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $71.36, with stronger barriers at $71.98 and $72.81, aligning with the 50-period EMA at $71.96.

Technically, the 50 EMA is acting as a dynamic resistance, capping bullish attempts. The descending channel structure reinforces the bearish outlook, making a breakout above $72.81 necessary to shift momentum in favor of buyers.

If WTI holds above $70.10, a short-term relief rally may emerge. However, failure to do so could drive further declines, with $68.49 as the next major support level.

Key Takeaways

• Bearish Channel: WTI remains trapped in a descending trend, limiting upside potential.

• Resistance Levels: The 50 EMA at $71.96 is capping gains, with stronger resistance at $72.81.

• Downside Risks: A break below $70.10 could trigger further declines toward $69.34 and $68.49.