Forex Signals Brief November 26: FOMC Minutes Highlight the Day
Yesterday risk assets opened higher on political events, but retreated lower in the US session, while today the FOMC minutes will highlight the day.
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Yesterday’s focus was on Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Secretary, whose arrival was met with optimism. Known for his expertise in foreign exchange and pragmatic approach, he is seen as a stabilizing force, especially against tariff-driven market interventions. Markets reacted positively to his debut, with both bonds and equities rallying.
In currency trading, the dollar weakened during the Asian and European sessions but regained some footing in U.S. trading despite falling yields. The pound and euro each moved about 50 pips higher. Meanwhile, news of an anticipated truce between Israel and Lebanon, likely to be announced tomorrow, shifted the spotlight to the State Department.
While this development is a win for global diplomacy, it weighed heavily on gold and oil prices, both of which dropped sharply. Elsewhere, the Russell 2000 index surged 2%, closing at a record high. The Treasury’s 2-year auction was another highlight, drawing solid demand for notes yielding around 4.3%. Banks played a notable role, bolstered by expectations of eased regulatory requirements for capital holdings.
Today’s Market Expectations
U.S. consumer confidence is projected to rise to 111.6, building on the previous figure of 108.7. Last month saw a substantial jump in confidence levels, climbing from 99.2 in September to 108.7 in October. This marked the largest monthly increase since March 2021, though the index remains confined within the narrow range observed over the past two years, according to Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. Perceptions of current business conditions have improved, and views on job availability have rebounded after months of decline, likely supported by stronger labor market data.
The FOMC minutes are set to be released later in the evening. At its November meeting, the FOMC unanimously voted to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.50–4.75%. The accompanying statement underwent a few revisions: it removed language suggesting “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%” and reframed the rationale for rate cuts as being “in support of its goals” rather than tied specifically to inflation progress. During the press conference, Chair Powell clarified that these changes should not be interpreted as a policy signal. However, earlier language suggesting inflation progress as a prerequisite for rate cuts has been effectively retired now that easing has begun. The adjustments highlight the Fed’s balanced focus on its dual mandate of inflation and employment.
Yesterday markets experienced some heightened volatility, which sent risk assets such a stock markets and commodity dollars higher initially, only to reverse lower again. As a result, traders got caught by the whipsaw in the price action. We opened 9 trading signals, ending the day with four winning forex signals and two losing ones.
Gold Loses $100 in a Day
Yesterday, gold experienced a dramatic $100 drop from its intraday peak to its lowest level. During the Asian session, gold (XAU/USD) traded below $2,700 before recovering above $2,720, signaling robust demand. However, European session sellers regained control, pushing prices lower, with XAU reaching $2,615 during U.S. trading. Despite this volatility, persistent global uncertainty continues to support gold as a preferred safe-haven asset.
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
GBP/USD Can’t Hold Above 1.26
In currency markets, the GBP/USD pair has faced heavy selling pressure since early October, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and weak UK economic data. Over this period, the pair has dropped nearly 10 cents, falling below the 1.25 level last Friday, reflecting recession fears in the UK. This came amid contrasting PMI reports, with robust U.S. Services PMI growth versus a contraction in the UK’s services sector for November. Yesterday, GBP/USD briefly climbed above 1.26 with a 60-pip gap higher but failed to maintain gains as risk sentiment weakened and UK inflation declined, reinforcing expectations for continued rate cuts by the Bank of England.
GBP/USD – H4 Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Within Touch of 100K
In the crypto market, Bitcoin narrowly missed the critical $100K milestone last week, as sellers stepped in just below the level. Today, Bitcoin dropped 5%, falling under $95,000, with some profit-taking emerging as $100K proved psychologically challenging for buyers.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Bounces Off the $3,000 Level
Ethereum followed a similar pattern, falling below $2,500 before rebounding sharply to $3,450. This recovery also helped Bitcoin reclaim its 50-day SMA, a key technical marker. While both cryptocurrencies remain sensitive to market fluctuations, their recent performance reflects renewed investor confidence and signals a promising outlook for the digital asset space.
ETH/USD – Daily chart
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