Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High of $75K Amid Trump’s Early Election Lead

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a new milestone, briefly touching $75,000.85 in the early hours of November 6, 2024, as preliminary U.S. election results showed Donald Trump taking an early lead. The cryptocurrency’s dramatic surge past its previous March high of $73,800 reflects growing market confidence and election-related volatility.

Election Impact and Market Response

As of 3:30 am UTC, Associated Press results indicated Trump leading with 198 electoral college votes compared to Harris’s 112, with several key battleground states and West Coast results still pending. This early lead has coincided with significant market movements, as Bitcoin rallied over 7.2% in the past 24 hours to settle at $74,339.

Market analysts, including Tuur Demeester, have noted a strong correlation between Trump’s rising odds and Bitcoin’s price performance. This relationship is further evidenced by data from decentralized prediction market Polymarket, where Trump’s victory odds exceeded 60% while Harris’s declined below 39%, coinciding with Bitcoin’s push above $70,000.

Institutional Activity and Bitcoin ETF Flows

The market has witnessed interesting institutional movements, with notable ETF activity on November 4:

• Total outflows reached $541.1 million
• Major providers including Fidelity, ArkInvest, and Bitwise experienced selling pressure
• BlackRock’s IBIT bucked the trend with $38.3 million in inflows

BTC/USD Technical Analysis and Market Structure

The cryptocurrency’s price action shows several notable technical developments:

• Breaking above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $68,450
• Trading well above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average
• Clearing the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing high
• MACD showing increasing momentum in the bullish zone
• RSI maintaining position above the 50 level

Key resistance levels have emerged at $72,800 and $73,200, with support established at $72,000 and $71,200.

Technical Pattern Analysis

Crypto analyst Captain Faibik has identified a “Descending Broadening Wedge” pattern on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential 30% rally to $88,000 by year-end. This technical formation, combined with current market momentum and election catalyst, provides a framework for continued upside potential.

Bitcoin Price Predictions and Long-term Outlook

Bernstein Group analysts have provided differentiated price targets based on election outcomes:

• Trump victory scenario: $80,000-$90,000 near-term target
• Harris victory scenario: Potential pullback to $50,000
• Long-term projection: $200,000 by 2025 regardless of election outcome

Their bullish long-term outlook is supported by:

1. Growing institutional adoption through ETFs
2. Rising U.S. national debt concerns
3. Broader market structural changes

Market Positioning and Risk Factors

Options market activity suggests traders are implementing protective measures while maintaining an overall bullish bias:

• Increased interest in calls at $72,000-$75,000 strikes
• Notable protective put buying at $64,000
• Market makers facing elevated risk on downside movements

Looking Ahead

As election results continue to roll in, market participants should expect continued volatility. Key levels to watch include:

• Immediate resistance: $75,000
• Critical support: $70,000
• Secondary support: $68,000