AUD/USD Surges to $0.6694 on Strong Jobs Data, Eyes Key Resistance for Breakout

The AUD/USD pair continued to rise during the European session, trading at 0.6687 and reaching an intraday high of 0.6694.

This is mainly due to the positive RBA outlook and strong Australian employment data. China’s recent rate cuts also helped, as China is Australia’s biggest trading partner.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to lure buyers, remains at the mercy of USD price dynamics

— XMRWARE (@xmrware) October 22, 2024

On the Australian data front, employment rose 64.1K in September, way above the 25K expected, taking total employment to a record 14.52 million.

Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, better than the 4.2% expected. Australia’s strong labour market has prompted National Australia Bank to revise its RBA rate cut forecast to February 2025.

Despite all this, the gains in the AUD may be limited as market focus shifts to RBA long term easing.

US dollar gains as economic data strong

The US dollar is rising on the back of strong data and is putting pressure on the AUD/USD. US Treasury yields are up 2% as economic activity looks solid, reducing the chances of a big rate cut in November.

Current data has 89.1% chance of 25bp cut and 10.9% chance of 50bp cut.

US retail sales rose 0.4% in September, beating expectations. Initial Jobless Claims fell 19,000 in the week ending October 11, labour market is healthy.

This supports the Fed’s view on rate cuts and is strengthening the US dollar and weighing on the AUD.

Forex Analysis: AUD/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to lure buyers, remains at the mercy of USD price dynamics #OxSecurities #FXAnalysis #ForexMarketAnalysis https://t.co/yqTFxUzy2Z

— Ox Securities (Global) (@OxSecurities) October 21, 2024

AUD/USD Technical: Levels to watch for a break

The AUD/USD is at 0.66875, up 0.44%. Price is near pivot levels, could go up or down depending on data and sentiment.

Resistance at $0.67233, above this and could go to $0.67454 and $0.67688. Below this and support is at $0.66687, then $0.66512 and $0.66302.

• Price: 0.66875, up 0.44%
• Resistance: 0.67233, 0.67454, 0.67688
• Support: 0.66687, 0.66512, 0.66302

RSI is neutral at 52. 50 day EMA is at 0.66883, so if price breaks below 0.66982 it could be a bearish reversal, if above resistance levels could go higher.