The USD has been showing some resilience lately, with CHF to USD rate being bullish in the last two weeks and climbing above 0.90. US dollar initially dropped following a disappointing ISM manufacturing index report but swiftly bounced back. The bond market is fueling this recovery, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing 12 basis points on the day and over 20 basis points from Friday’s post-PCE lows.
The S&P PMI saw a slight decline in June, with the survey hitting its lowest point since February. Initially, the US dollar dropped following the news but has since rebounded, possibly driven by an increase in new orders. Currently, I’m closely monitoring the restaurant sector for any signs of weakening customer demand, especially after last month’s warning from McDonald’s. Housing continues to be a significant drag, as reflected in some of the comments mentioned earlier.