The Nasdaq 100 index closed at $19,659.80 on June 17, showcasing a 0.05% increase, and maintaining a bullish trend within an ascending channel. Recent economic data has presented a mixed picture.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 65.6 in June, below the anticipated 71.5, while wholesale inflation unexpectedly declined by 0.2% in May.

Although import and export prices also fell, signalling a broader pullback in inflation, the Federal Reserve remains cautious.

Market Movers and Corporate Earnings

Adobe’s shares soared nearly 15% following strong earnings and optimistic AI-driven revenue forecasts, contrasting with declines in industrial stocks like Caterpillar and travel-related companies like Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line.

Broadcom also experienced a 2.2% increase due to a positive forecast and stock split announcement.

Federal Reserve Outlook

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester’s remarks highlight the Fed’s careful approach to monetary policy.

TOMORROW: Loretta Mester’s final Squawk Box interview as Cleveland Fed President, discussing the central bank’s interest rate path, her stance on the economy, and inflation. pic.twitter.com/FdIdnC4hmq

— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) June 13, 2024

While the central bank predicts a single rate cut this year, the market anticipates multiple cuts. Mester emphasized the need for more positive inflation data before considering further easing of monetary policy.

Overall, the Nasdaq 100 outlook remains bullish, supported by the upward channel and strong corporate earnings.

However, investors should remain vigilant about potential headwinds stemming from mixed economic data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates.

NASDAQ 100 Price Forecast

The Nasdaq 100 Index is trading at $19,659.80, up 0.05% on the day, maintaining its position within a well-defined upward channel. This channel has provided consistent support, particularly around the $19,540 level, bolstering the ongoing uptrend.

1. The Nasdaq 100 is up 3% so far this week and has traded higher on all four trading days, but breadth has been 50/50 with 50 stocks up on the week and 50 stocks down.

2. Thursday saw just 29 stocks in the index up versus 71 that were down.

3. NDX > NDXE by ~90bps, which is a… pic.twitter.com/O8jAxTKVjO

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) June 14, 2024

The current pivot point at $19,659.80 serves as a crucial fulcrum, with immediate resistance levels at $19,733.39, $19,851.95, and $19,960.20. Should the index break above these levels, further upside momentum is anticipated.

Conversely, the immediate support levels are situated at $19,542.24, $19,400.92, and $19,265.61. A break below these levels could signal a potential trend reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 81.79, indicating overbought conditions, which may warrant caution for bullish investors. However, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $19,112.88 remains well below the current price, suggesting the overall trend remains bullish.

In conclusion, the Nasdaq 100 Index continues to exhibit strength, underpinned by the upward channel and a series of ascending pivot points. As long as the index holds above the $19,540 support level, a continuation of the bullish trend is likely.

However, traders should remain vigilant for potential overbought conditions, as indicated by the elevated RSI, which could trigger a short-term pullback.