WTI: Crude Oil Extends its Rally – Market Awaits OPEC+ Meeting

WTI rallied over $1.30, or 1.6%, today as the market hears of strong US economic data and a surge in imports from Asia, with China and India taking the lions share.

The data released showed a US economy that is still expanding at a healthy rate. The data for GDP Q4 showed a positive surprise at 3.4%, while last month’s reading was 3.2%. The unemployment figures were also positive, with a decline to 210k initial jobless claims from 212k last month.

The PCE index showed price increase are stable at 1.8%, the same as last month. This may leave the Federal Reserve more room when deciding the timing for interest rate cuts. This sentiment may negatively affect the stock market, but the crude oil market is more interested in knowing if demand can outpace supply.

According to data compiled by LSEG Oil Research, the top importing region worldwide is set to see an increase of imports from 26.7 million bpd in February to 27.5 million bpd in March. China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, is set to increase imports to 11.75 million bpd from 11.16 million bpd.

India is also racking up demand for crude oil, from 4.55 million bpd to 4.93 million bpd. The market is also gearing up for next week’s OPEC meeting on the 3^rd. However, no new decisions on production are expected at this date.

Technical view

The day chart below for WTI shows the current bull trend is still in place after the breakout of a major triangle. The market broke out of the triangle pattern 10 sessions ago, then retraced towards the support line.

With today’s candle set to print in green we can see that the bull trend looks likely to continue. For confirmation of the bull trend, we need to see price go above the previous high set in November 2023 and March 19 at $83.01 (blue line).

If that were to occur, then the next target for WTI would be a previous high set in October 2023 at $85.98. Failure to break the resistance at $83.01 could trigger a correction lower toward the support area (black line) at $79.64.