Forex Signals Brief for February 10: Is US Consumer Sentiment Improving?

Posted Friday, February 10, 2023 by
Skerdian Meta • 3 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

After last Frdiay’s great services and employment reports from the US which showed a strong bounce in January and sent the USD rallying higher on the idea that the FED might keep rising rate further, Jerome Powell calmed the markets somewhat on Tuesday, So, the USD has been on a slight retreat this week which continued in the Asian and European sessions yesterday, but started gaining some momentum in the US session.

The economic calendar was light, with the US unemployment claims coming close to expectations for the last week. Although, there was a notable jump in consumer inflation CPI (consumer price index) in Germany during last month by 1.0%, which was more than the 0.9% expected, coming from a decline in December.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today started with the RBA Monetary Policy Statement in the Adian session which leaned a bit on the hawkish side as it revised forecasts for core inflation higher, followed by the inflation report from China which showed an increase in January. The UK GDP report was released a while ago, showing a contraction in December. In the US session, we will have the employment report from Canada with the unemployment rate expected to tik p to 5.1%, while after that we will see if consumer confidence has improved in the US, which would be bullish for the USD.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday started with a positive tone in financial markets, with risk assets moving higher while the USD was in retreat. But, the sentiment reversed and the USD rallied higher. We opened five trading signals, mostly in Gold which closed in profit, with only the Oil signal closing in the loss.

GOLD Resuming the Decline

Gold turned bearish last week after being in an uptrend for three months. It broke below all moving averages on the H4 chart, which indicates a trend reversal after making a very strong rally since the middle of November. This week we have seen buyers test the 200 SMA (purple) on the H4 chart, but they kept failing and yesterday we saw a bearish reversal, which got us three winning Gold signals.

XAU/USD – H4 chart

Going Short on WTI Oil at MAs

Crude Oil turned bullish this week and has reached the 200 SMA (purple) on the H4 chart, which acted as resistance. Stochastic was overbought and we decided to open a sell Oil signal, The price bounced off the 50 SMA (yellow) after the reversal but the bounce stopped short.

US Oil – H4 chart

Cryptocurrency Update

The retreat we saw in cryptocurrencies over the weekend might have come to an end since we saw some decent gains yesterday. Overall, they continue to display bullish momentum, as they keep the gains after the bearish reversal in risk currencies in the second half of last week, as dips keep finding buying pressure.

BITCOIN Testing the 200 SMA On This Retreat

Bitcoin has retreated off the highs in recent days and now sellers are testing the 200 SMA on the H4 chart. The price was slipping lower over the weekend and yesterday the decline resumed again as risk sentiment turned negative. So, this is a test to see if cryptocurrencies have turned bullish on the long term or if January’s run was just a dead cat bounce.

BTC/USD – 240 minute chart

ETHEREUM Breaking the 20 SMA

Ethereum has been trading sideways for the last two weeks after the bullish run last month, but the lows were getting higher which indicated bullish pressure again. The 20 SMA (gray) was acting as support on the daily chart, but yesterday that moving average was broken so let’s see if the 200 MA will hold.