BOJ Looking to Unwind Stimulus Measures as Trade Tensions Ease?
A recent Reuters poll reveals that economists seem confused about the next steps of the Bank of Japan with regards to its monetary policy. Even though a majority still expect further easing in the near future, a growing number of economists are shifting their stance over possible improvement in US-China trade tensions boosting Japan’s economic growth.
The latest Reuters poll reveals that around 56% expect the BOJ to ease its monetary policy further, a steep decline from the 86% who indicated further easing during the previous poll. However, 44% of economists indicate that the BOJ could unwind stimulus measures by 2021 or later.
In its most recent monetary policy meeting in October, the BOJ had voted to keep its monetary policy on hold but had sounded more dovish in its updated forward guidance, hinting at keeping rates ultra-low or even cutting them further depending on escalating external risks. Governor Kuroda had also expressed his willingness for further easing in case the momentum towards achieving 2% inflation target weakens.
Around 67% of the economists polled expect the BOJ to step in with further easing in case USD/JPY slides towards the 100 level. A weaker yen boosts Japan’s revenues from trade and helps support its export-reliant economy.
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