Aussie Retail Sales Post a Disappointing Miss
It’s a busy week for the Aussie and things are starting early with retail sales data, which is a top-tier release.
Retail sales for Septemeber came in at 0.2% a poor result with 0.5% being the expectation, which was in-fact an uptick. So a miss and a lower result is very soft.
The important point to note with this data point is that the number is from September so that is a little bit of a lag. And since that point in time, things have taken a bit of a turn for the better.
The main issue at the moment in Australia is, of course, the RBA. As it happens we have the official RBA interest rate decision due out tomorrow.
So far this year there have been multiple cuts, that has taken the cash rate down to 0.75% form 1.5%. However, finally, there has been an uptick in some of the data points the RBA is watching closely.
The main one, of course, is the jobless rate. It dropped last month from 5.3% to 5.2%. Not a big move, but it is finally in the right direction.
So in terms of what lies ahead, the RBA is such a big factor, that today’s number will likely not have a big follow-through today.
If the RBA comes out and signals this is the end of the rate cuts, then that will open the door for some more upside in the AUD/USD.
Technically, price has run up to 0.6900, so the obvious resistance level will be 0.7000.
The thing to remember is that the FOMC has signalled the same sort of thing in the US as well. So while they had been cutting, it now looks like they have reached the end of the cuts.
So that should prop the USD up to some extent and mean that the Aussie likely doesn’t have huge upside in the short-term.
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