Inventories Fall, August WTI Rallies Modestly

The weekly inventories cycle is complete and seasonal trends appear to be hampering oil supplies. However, the pricing of WTI crude continues to ignore the peak demand of summertime in the Northern Hemisphere. For now, August WTI crude oil futures have yet to rebound significantly from Tuesday’s plunge.

The Oil Inventories Are In…

Earlier today, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks report came in negative, but beat expectations. This is a bit contradictory to conventional wisdom for July and has drawn some bids to WTI. Here is a quick look at this week’s inventory stats:

Event                                                      Actual    Projected    Previous

API Crude Oil Stocks                              -5.0M           NA            -7.55M

EIA Crude Oil Stocks                            -1.085M     -2.964M    -12.788M

While not as steep as last week, oil stocks have continued their decline. The headliner of this group is today’s EIA number coming in almost 2 million barrels above expectations. Although still in line with seasonal supply trends, the figure is not what many were expecting going into early July.

August WTI Crude In A Holding Pattern Following Inventories

Today’s daily range has been a tight one in August WTI crude. At press time (12:30 PM EST), prices are banging into topside resistance at the daily Bollinger MP.

Overview: To say the least, it has been a challenging late-spring/early summer 2019 for WTI crude. It seems that just when bulls gain an upper hand, the market falls apart as we saw Tuesday. 

For the moment, the 38% Current Wave Retracement ($56.73) is the key level for August WTI crude oil. Energy bulls and bears are fighting it in this area, debating whether $60.00 or $55.00 is next big-round-number to be tested. If August WTI closes the week above $56.73, then it is a good bet that a return $60.00 is likely before a plunge to $55.00.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Shain Vernier

US Analyst

Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.

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Olayiwola Abiodun

5 years ago

Great is my respect for most of your analysis of the market but I am of the opinion that the OPEC and OPEC+ decision to extend the oil production cut ( though already priced in by the market ) would still have after effect on the price though the market seems to have ignored that for know because of global economic slow down that affect the demand side

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Shain Vernier

5 years ago

Reply to  Olayiwola Abiodun

Olayiwola,

The OPEC production cuts are certainly a key factor in these markets. However, the impact of the cuts may not be seen for quite some time as supply levels remain relatively strong considering the season. At this point, institutional money is simply not interested in being long crude oil.

If we do not begin to see WTI make a legitimate charge at $65.00 or $70.00 by the end of July, then the yearly highs for global oil are very likely in.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned!

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