FX Leaders Signals Report for 2023

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Last Updated On: January 9, 2024

In 2023, volatility was strong, and markets have continued in the same fashion so far in 2024, with decent price action in most fx pairs, resulting in a high number of trading signals (1,045 in total) at the end of the year. Trading the forex, commodities, indices, and cryptocurrency markets yielded 9,480 pips of profit in 2023, despite the occasional drawdown. Markets have been characterized by expectations that central banks, particularly the FED, will stop raising interest rates, and they have been trading in anticipation of this. Central banks have kept rates on hold for several months and the FED is preparing to begin the easing cycle early in 2024.

In recent months, this has had an impact on risk sentiment, as well as geopolitical events, with the USD falling during positive risk periods and rising when sentiment turned negative. Our primary strategy has been to monitor market sentiment, particularly on major forex pairs and trade USD pairs accordingly. We remained short the USD in the first half of the year as it followed last year’s bearish momentum, but turned long in Q3, following a positive reversal as the FED turned hawkish until recently. In Q4, the USD reversed again, as the FED began to propose the start of rate cuts this year. This technique was successful, therefore we will continue to follow risk sentiment into 2024.

FX Leader Signals P/L by Month

Month	Number of Signals	P/L
January	17	229
February	102	1,504
March	27	2,472
April	96	786
May	90	303
June	95	144
July	104	560
August	87	620
September	69	490
October	71	530
November	92	1,789
December	95	53
Grand Total	945	9,480

Forex Signals

Last year, we saw several reversals in market sentiment, with the USD moving in the opposite direction of risk assets such as commodity dollars. However, the large moves were predictable, with central bank officials making their intentions clear, making it easier to trade in the forex market, primarily against risk sentiment. This is one of the reasons we have focused mostly on big pairings such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, while also trading forex crosses such as EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, and GBP/AUD, accumulating a total of 1,330 pips from Forex signals thus far. The most lucrative forex pair for us was AUD/USD by far, with 771 pips, as the price remained negative for the most of the year and we stayed short until recent weeks, followed by USD/CAD with 282 pips and EUR/USD with 211. The NZD/USD pair has cost us the most, at -326 pips.

Forex Pair	Number of Forex Signals	Profit/Loss
AUD/USD	70	771
EUR/CHF	6	-37
EUR/GBP	41	35
EUR/JPY	11	49
EUR/USD	173	211
GBP/AUD	1	80
GBP/USD	83	121
NZD/USD	37	-326
USD/CAD	49	282
USD/CHF	22	124
USD/JPY	123	20
Total	616	1,330

Commodity Signals P/L

This year’s commodities market has been the most unpredictable, with numerous reversals caused by market emotion and geopolitics. Gold, silver, and crude oil have largely traded in a range in 2023, but this is where we’ve earned the most money this year, especially in gold (XAU/USD) and US crude oil (WTI). Gold has provided us with the most profit, totaling 3,697 pips; but, we have also received the most trading signals, 329 in total. Because of the significant volatility, we have primarily relied on long-term gold signals, which has shown to be an excellent trading technique. Crude oil has been our second most profitable trading commodity, and we have focused mostly on long-term oil signals. We opened 43 Oil indications in total, resulting in 1,524 pips by the end of October.

Commodities	Number of Commodity Signals	P/L
Gold	329	3,697
US Oil	43	1,524
Total	372	5,221

Cryptocurrency Signals

Cryptocurrencies began at their lowest levels since 2020, but they bottomed out in December of last year and have created a significant bullish trend this year. The volatility has not been excessive, thus the upswing has been consistent and acceptable for trading with modest risk exposure. We have stayed with big cryptocurrency coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have quadrupled in value since the beginning of 2023 and remain positive, while we remain long on these digital assets. BTC/USD rose beyond $16,000 in January and is now trading above $40,000, and we have been long 95% of our BTC signals. So far, we’ve opened 25 Bitcoin signals, with the majority of the trades being long-term Bitcoin signals that have netted us 2,116 pips. In Ethereum, we have opened 20 signals. With the exception of one, all of the ETH signals have been buy signals, resulting in 807 pips.

Cryptocurrency	Number of Crypto Signals	P/L
Ethereum	20	807
Bitcoin	25	2,116
Total	45	2,923

Index Signals

In 2023, the price activity in the major stock indices has mostly followed that of the FX market, as stock markets are extremely susceptible to risk sentiment. They remained optimistic in Q1 and Q3, but fell slightly as the Fed expanded its policy tightening process. However, bullish momentum resumed in Q4, and major stock indices such as the German Dax30 and the US S$P500 reached new highs, breaking the previous all-time highs set in late 2021 after massive amounts of money were poured into financial markets, sending stock markets soaring higher. The price movement this year hasn’t been the same, but buyers are in control, and as central banks begin to loosen policy, more capital will pour into stock markets. We only opened one signal in indices this year, with minimal returns, because we’ve been focusing on Forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

Long-Term/Short-Term Breakdown

	Number of Forex Signals	P/L
Long Term	79	3,277
Short Term	866	6,203
Total	945	9,480

Win/Loss Breakdown

	Number of Forex Signals	P/L
Win	637	13,592
Loss	308	-4,112
Total	945	9,480

About the author

Skerdian Meta // Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.