Brexit Main Reason Behind Germany’s Falling Exports

According to a recent report on Reuters, Brexit uncertainties have been the main driver behind Germany’s weakening exports, instead of the US-China trade war. Recently released trade data reveals that German exports to Britain declined by almost 15% YoY in Q2 2019 after rising by 6% in Q1 2019.

On the other hand, despite the trade war, Germany’s exports to the US and China climbed higher. Exports to the UK accounted for 70% of the decline in Germany’s exports, mostly because of the fallout after the stockpiling that happened during Q1 when the original Brexit date was March 29.

Exports to Italy, Germany’s third-largest market for trade, remained steady during Q1 2019 and declined by nearly 3% during the second quarter of this year, further impacting Germany’s trade balance and the German economy overall. However, as the Brexit deadline approaches, British imports from Germany are picking up once again as businesses stockpile ahead of a possible no-deal Brexit.

As a result, analysts expect German exports to pick up during Q3 2019. However, the trade war could continue to exert downward pressure on German exports to the US, China and other regions.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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