WTI Oil Price Eyes $64.26 Breakout as Triangle Squeeze Builds Before OPEC+

Oil prices edged up slightly on Monday as traders waited for OPEC+ decisions and a murky US-China trade backdrop. WTI Crude (WTI/USD) traded around $63.28 for a third day after last week’s 1% drop.

Michael McCarthy, CEO of Moomoo Australia, said “there’s no new news” and traders are defensively positioned ahead of OPEC+ meeting on May 5. Expectations of production hike and global growth concerns due to trade tensions are weighing on sentiment.

Washington and Beijing are sending conflicting signals. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen dampened hopes of new trade talks, while President Trump earlier made positive comments. Beijing flatly denied any ongoing talks.

Traders are watching:

• OPEC+ production adjustments

• US-China trade talks

• Iran-US nuclear talks in Oman

• Geopolitical risks from Middle East events

OPEC+ and Global Trade Jitters

While traders wait for supply decisions, broader geopolitical trends are adding volatility. Investors are following nuclear talks between Iran and US, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi saying there’s limited optimism.

Separately, an explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port – the country’s largest – killed at least 40 and injured over 1,200, raising concerns about infrastructure stability in an oil producing nation.

Meanwhile, US-Ukraine talks are showing diplomatic progress, but markets are focused on trade disputes as the bigger economic risk.

Key factors affecting oil sentiment:

• Iran’s nuclear talks uncertainty

• Middle East supply disruption risks

• Cautious optimism for a Russia-Ukraine deal

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meeting signals on global demand

WTI Crude Oil Chart: Breakout or Breakdown?

On the chart, WTI Crude is compressing into a symmetrical triangle on the 1-hour chart. The price is above the 50-hour EMA ($62.88) and between support at $62.27 and resistance at $63.67.For newbies, this is a triangle squeeze. A clean breakout above $63.67 could take prices to $64.26 and $64.84. Below $62.27 and it’s downside to $61.81.

Trade Setup:

• Buy Breakout: Above $63.67

• Targets: $64.26 and $64.84

• Support to Watch: $62.27

• Stop-Loss: Below $61.81

Be patient. Wait for a clean breakout before entering, as whipsaws are common when patterns compress at apex.