Forex Signals April 25: Will Trade Talks & Earnings Offer a Bullish Finish for DJIA?

Markets surged again yesterday and are expected to close a bullish week today, powered by strong tech earnings, cooling yields, and trade...

Skerdian Meta•Friday, April 25, 2025•3 min read

Higher Q1 tech earnings helped keep stocks bullish yesterday

Quick overview

US equity markets experienced a strong rally, with the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all closing higher, driven by positive tech earnings and a decline in Treasury yields.
Market sentiment improved due to optimistic developments in US-China trade discussions, although a comprehensive resolution remains uncertain.
US durable goods orders surged by 9.2% in March, significantly exceeding expectations, while inflation data from Japan showed a surprising increase.
Bitcoin rebounded to $93,000 amid renewed risk appetite, reflecting broader optimism in the tech sector and favorable market conditions.

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Markets surged again yesterday and are expected to close a bullish week today, powered by strong tech earnings, cooling yields, and renewed optimism in US-China trade dialogue.

US Markets Rally for Third Day

Equity markets closed higher across the board Thursday, extending their recovery rally from Monday’s steep selloff. Despite a weaker US dollar, the broader risk sentiment improved, driving gains in equities and bonds alike. Treasury yields moved steadily lower as bond prices jumped, reflecting safe-haven flows and dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 486.83 points (+1.23%) to close at 40,093.40, now up 2.43% for the week. The S&P 500 rose by 108.91 points (+2.03%) to finish at 5,484.77, bringing its weekly gain to 3.83%, while NASDAQ outperformed with a 458-point rally (+2.74%) to settle at 17,166, up a robust 5.40% on the week.

Technical traders noted that both the Dow and the S&P closed above their 200-hour moving averages, a key short-term bullish signal. The S&P held above 5,459.83, while the NASDAQ maintained a close over 16,977.02.

Trade & Geopolitics Back in Focus

Market sentiment was bolstered further by headlines suggesting progress in US-China trade discussions, as well as potential de-escalation between India and China. However, most observers noted that a comprehensive resolution remains distant, with only tentative “memorandums of understanding” reportedly in play.

Elsewhere, President Trump weighed in on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, proposing that Ukraine cede Crimea to Russia in exchange for peace—a suggestion strongly opposed by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.

US Durable Goods Surge

On the data front, US durable goods orders soared 9.2% in March, smashing expectations of a 2.0% rise and marking the largest monthly gain since July 2024. However, excluding transportation, orders were flat (0.0%), missing the expected 0.3% increase and down from February’s 0.7% growth. Weekly initial jobless claims met expectations at 222,000.

Today’s Market Outlook: Inflation Surprises & Durable Goods

In Asia, Japan’s April Tokyo CPI surprised to the upside: Core CPI (ex fresh food) rose 3.4% y/y vs. 3.2% forecast — the first 3%+ print since July 2023. Broader headline CPI hit 3.5%, accelerating from 2.9% prior. while Inflation excluding food and energy surged 0.7% m/m, more than double the previous month’s pace.

We also have the Retail Sales data from the UK for March and Canada for April, both of which are expected to decline, unlike the surge we saw in the US retail sales data yesterday. Besides that, Swiss National Bank Chairman Schlegel will hold a speech, so look out for some CHF weakness.

Last week, markets were chaotic, with gold soaring $250 in the final three days, the EUR/USD surging 5 cents, and stock markets opening down before turning upward. The moves were big, and the volatility was enormous, so we opened 40 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 25 winning signals and 15 losing ones.

Gold Surges, Then Retreats as Rate Cut Hopes and Diplomacy Shift

Gold staged a dramatic rebound above $3,300 following Fed Chair Powell’s dovish tone and escalating global tensions. The metal hit an all-time high of $3,444/oz, capping off a $500+ rally in just two weeks. However, improved trade sentiment later in the session caused gold to retreat sharply . falling below $3,300, however yesterday buyers returned and sent the XAU price $100 higher. Chart XAUUSD, H4, 2025.04.24 23:45 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

XAU/USD – H4 Chart

Euro Reverses Gains After ECB Cut and Dollar Resurgence

EUR/USD initially rallied to 1.1572 after the ECB’s rate cut, seen as a preemptive move ahead of anticipated Fed easing. However, the move faded, and the euro slipped back below 1.13 amid a rebound in dollar demand. Traders are now questioning whether the pair can sustain levels above 1.10 in the near term. Chart EURUSD, H4, 2025.04.24 23:46 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

EUR/USD – H4 Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Bounce Back on Renewed Risk Appetite

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $75,000, briefly touching its 50-week moving average, before rebounding to $93,000. The move followed broader tech optimism and Trump’s pro-growth remarks, which reinvigorated crypto market sentiment. BTC broke above the 100 daily SMA (green) and is now consolidating gain below $95K.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

XRP Stabilizes Above $2.20

Ripple (XRP) displayed notable strength early this week, holding firm at critical support levels between $1.80–$2.20. The token climbed back to $2.20 midweek, buoyed by new investor interest and potential for broader altcoin upside and it is trading right at the 50 daily SMA (green).
XRP/USD – Daily Chart

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.