JSE Top 40 Eyes 84,250 Breakout—Rand Gains 0.3% to 18.70/USD
The JSE started the day strong, with the FTSE/JSE All Share up 1.18% at 90,546.43 ZAR. While at the same time, the JSE Top 40...
Quick overview
- The JSE started strong with the All Share index up 1.18% and the Top 40 trading above 83,000, aiming for 84,250.
- The rand strengthened by 0.3% against the US Dollar, driven by anticipation of the South African Reserve Bank's business cycle indicator.
- Technically, a break above 84,250 could lead to further gains, while political risks and a proposed VAT hike create uncertainty.
- Global factors, including a softer US dollar and potential rate cuts, are supporting emerging market assets like the rand.
The JSE started the day strong, with the FTSE/JSE All Share up 1.18% at 90,546.43 ZAR. While at the same time, the JSE Top 40 is now trading just above 83,000 and heading towards 84,250.
The rand was firmer, up 0.3% at 18.70 against the US Dollar. Traders attribute the strength to growing anticipation around the South African Reserve Bank’s business cycle indicator – a composite metric that reflects short-term economic direction using inputs like vehicle sales and business confidence.
Technical View: All Eyes on 84,250
Technically the JSE Top 40 is in a rising channel and heading towards the well tested 84,250 level. A clean break above this level could see moves to 85,390 or even 86,610 if momentum continues.
Key Technical Markers:
Current Price: 83,076
Resistance: 84,250
Support (50 EMA): 80,734
MACD: Turning slightly negative, could be a near term pause
For newbies this is a textbook breakout continuation play. Look for a strong volume backed candle above 84,250 to confirm the move. If the rally stalls look for 82,059 as a potential bounce zone.
Domestic Politics and Global Cues Add Complexity
While the market is strong, political risk is still simmering under the surface. A proposed VAT hike on May 1 is causing tension within the ruling coalition and the DA has taken the matter to court. A ruling is expected today that could either reinforce or erode investor confidence in the country’s fiscal stability.
Globally a softer US dollar is supporting emerging market assets like South Africa. President Trump’s pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell has led markets to price in three rate cuts in 2025, which has dragged the dollar down and added to rand gains.
Bottom Line
The JSE is up on a stronger rand, SARB data hopes and global sentiment. But with political risk and external volatility still present, be cautious.
If the Top 40 breaks 84,250 cleanly, SA equities may already be off and running.
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