Gold Weekly Outlook: $3,318 Pivot in Focus as Fed Signals and Data Loom
Gold prices closed the week with a 2.79% gain—$90 up from last Friday's price of $3,327 an ounce. That rebound follows renewed investor...
Quick overview
- Gold prices closed the week at $3,327 an ounce, marking a 2.79% gain amid renewed investor interest.
- Despite touching a record high of $3,358 earlier in the week, profit-taking led to a slight pullback in prices.
- Federal Reserve commentary continues to influence gold's trajectory, with rising treasury yields putting pressure on non-yielding assets.
- Next week, a sustained move above $3,318 is crucial for gold to retest resistance levels and maintain bullish sentiment.
Gold prices closed the week with a 2.79% gain—$90 up from last Friday’s price of $3,327 an ounce. That rebound follows renewed investor interest amid growing uncertainty and mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials.
Bullion touched a record high of $3,358 earlier in the week, before profit-taking brought prices back down slightly. Despite that pullback, gold remains well-supported by those broader macro headwinds and a weaker dollar.
Last week’s move was particularly impressive given the low liquidity during the Easter weekend, when both U.S. and European markets were partially shut. Institutional demand persisted, and gold’s resilience around the $3,294-$3,318 area sets the tone for the week ahead.
Fed Commentary Drives Sentiment
Federal Reserve commentary continues to shape gold’s trajectory. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted the economy’s strength, but also acknowledged signs of cooling in certain sectors. Her comments that neutral rates “may be rising” pointed to a persistent hawkish bias that was echoed by Chair Jerome Powell later in the week.
Treasury yields rose to 4.33% and real yields to 2.16%. That put pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. Yet traders seem to be focused on gold’s role as a safe haven as trade policy rhetoric and global uncertainty linger.
Next week will bring a slate of Fed speeches, durable goods orders, flash PMIs and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final. A dovish shift in tone or weaker-than-expected data could re-energize the gold rally and reignite demand at higher levels.
Weekly Technical Outlook: Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
Gold prices ended the week on a steady note at $3,327. That metal held above both the 50-period EMA at $3,267 and a key ascending trendline support. That structure reflects strong underlying bullish sentiment. Recent price action suggests temporary exhaustion near the $3,357 zone.
The Fibonacci retracement from the latest swing high shows price rebounding off the 38.2% level at $3,294. A sustained move above the $3,318 pivot will be needed early next week to retest resistance at $3,357 and potentially push toward $3,379 and $3,399.
If that doesn’t happen, a break below $3,294 could expose gold to downside to $3,275 or even $3,255 if broader market sentiment weakens.
Key Price Levels
Pivot Point: $3,318.61
Immediate Resistance: $3,357.22
Next Resistance: $3,379.45
Next Resistance: $3,399.90
Immediate Support: $3,294.43
Next Support: $3,275.08
Next Support: $3,255.73
Technical Indicators
50 EMA: $3,267.33 – Bullish support
MACD: Weakening momentum; histogram fading
Key Insights:
Gold holds firm above ascending trendline and 50 EMA
MACD shows early signs of slowing momentum
Watch for breakout above $3,318 to confirm continuation toward $3,357+
Conclusion:
Next week, gold’s bullish case remains intact above $3,294. A clean break above $3,318 with volume is needed to regain upward traction.
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