Bitcoin Stalls: $85.000 Break or Drop Ahead?

A successful close above $85,150 would break a key Fibonacci retracement level (61.8% of the recent drop), opening the door for a rally.

Quick overview

  • Bitcoin is currently in a critical consolidation phase, with potential breakouts or breakdowns defining its short-term direction amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
  • The cryptocurrency market has been affected by the ongoing trade war, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain momentum and testing key support levels.
  • BTC is trading below $85,000 and needs to close above the $85,200–$85,500 resistance zone to regain bullish momentum.
  • Market indecision is evident as Bitcoin consistently rebounds between $83,200 and $85,000, with caution prevailing among investors.

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Bitcoin is currently in a critical consolidation phase, where any breakout above resistance or breakdown below support could define its short-term direction — all amid a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bitcoin is Trying to Break the Consolidation Phase Amid the Trade War.
In China, Bitcoin is all but outlawed, but that could change this year.

The ongoing trade war has impacted cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), the largest crypto asset by market cap. Many cryptocurrencies have not only erased the gains seen after Donald Trump’s election victory in November, but some, like Ethereum (ETH), have plunged to levels not seen in over two years. While a recently announced trade truce by the U.S. might bring some market stability, uncertainty still looms. What’s next for Bitcoin?

BTC remains trapped in a narrow range, testing investors’ patience as it searches for direction. After briefly dipping below the $85,500 mark, the crypto market shows signs of consolidation. Bitcoin’s price action continues to hover within a defined band, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war shaped by technical levels and macroeconomic concerns.


Bitcoin Stuck in a Familiar Pattern

Bitcoin began the week struggling to maintain momentum. After failing to hold above $86,500, it dropped below $85,500 and tested the $83,200 support level. This pullback placed BTC in a sideways channel, sparking speculation of an imminent breakout.

Currently, BTC is trading below $85,000 and under the 100-hour simple moving average. A descending trendline is forming near $84,800, acting as immediate resistance. To regain bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs a decisive close above the $85,200–$85,500 resistance zone. If successful, it could retest the recent high of $86,400. Until then, the $83,200–$85,500 range remains in play.


Will Bitcoin Break Out or Drop Again?

The clearest sign of Bitcoin’s consolidation is its consistent rebound between $83,200 and $85,000. On the hourly chart, BTC has been rejected around $84,800, exactly at the descending trendline. A successful close above $85,150 would break a key Fibonacci retracement level (61.8% of the recent drop), potentially opening the door to a rally.

BTC/USD

In the meantime, price action is tightening as momentum fades. The hourly MACD shows weakening bearish pressure, while the RSI hovers near the neutral 50 level — signaling market indecision and caution.

However, failure to hold above the crucial $85,000 zone could trigger renewed downside pressure.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Ignacio Teson
Economist and Financial Analyst
Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

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