WTI Oil Risks Fresh Drop Below $60 as Tariffs Slash Demand by 300K bpd

Oil markets are on edge again. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is struggling to hold its ground, trading near $60.60 after a 13% drop this month.

The big culprit? A worsening U.S.-China trade rift that’s going to drag global growth—and energy demand—down with it.

On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day, from 1.03 million to just 730,000 bpd. The move comes as fears of the 145% U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports and Beijing’s retaliation grow.

“The trend is down,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG. “Without trade or economic data support, rallies will be short-lived.”

Forecasts Fall as Supply-Demand Gap Widens

Not just the IEA. Big banks like UBS, BNP Paribas, and HSBC have all lowered their crude forecasts as geopolitical risk rises and demand falters. And OPEC+ is still pumping, while consumption dips—making the gap worse.

Tetsu Emori, CEO of Emori Fund Management, said:

“Without stock market support, WTI will stay in the $60–$61 range.”

He added that only a big equity rally or policy shift will get WTI above $65.

Fresh inventory data isn’t helping:

• U.S. crude stocks up 2.4 million barrels

• Gasoline inventories down 3 million barrels

• Distillate stocks down 3.2 million barrels

That’s a supply-demand mismatch flashing red for bulls.

Technical View: WTI at a Make-or-Break Level

WTI is hanging on just above $60.60, a level it’s tested several times this month. The 50-period EMA at $61.16 is resistance and the RSI at 43 shows momentum fading.

Trade Ideas

Bullish Setup (if WTI bounces):

• Entry: Buy above $61.70

• Target: $63.65 – $65.67

• Stop Loss: $60.00

Bearish Setup (if support breaks):

• Entry: Sell below $60.40

• Target: $59.13 – $56.80

• Stop Loss: $61.70

Pro Tip: Be patient. Don’t guess the breakout—wait for confirmation with a strong candle close and volume surge.

Conclusion: Watch the Macro

Until there’s movement on tariffs or a policy shift from central banks, oil will stay in this range. Bulls need a change in sentiment or strong data to take control. For now, all eyes are on $60.60—if it breaks, it will open the gates.