WTI Crude Slips to $61.30: 3 Key Drivers Behind Oil’s Latest Retreat

During the Asian session on Monday, the WTI crude oil falls to $61.30 as demand worries, OPEC+ supply and US-Iran tensions ease. Here’s what oil traders need to know today.

1. Demand Fears Still Loom

WTI crude slipped to $61.30 on Monday as investors weighed fresh demand concerns. President Trump’s partial tariff relief on Chinese electronics was brief respite but his warning “more tariffs are coming” killed that quickly.

Uncertainty is high especially with China, the world’s biggest oil importer, in the crosshairs. If tariffs slow China’s economy it could have a knock on effect on global energy demand. That’s a red flag for oil bulls hoping for demand to recover soon.

2. OPEC+ Is Pumping More—and That’s Bad

Just as demand is a concern OPEC+ is pumping more than expected. That caught many off guard and is raising concerns of an oversupply in an already weak market.

Markets are now waiting for OPEC’s report later today for clues on how they see the supply-demand balance playing out. But for now the mood is bearish and more supply isn’t helping.

3. US-Iran Talks Could Unleash More Oil

Wildcard? US-Iran talks resumed over the weekend for the first time since 2022. Hosted in Oman these talks are already speculating about sanctions relief and Iranian oil returning to the market.

If sanctions ease Iran’s exports—especially to China—could rise and add more supply to the mix. That’s another factor tilting the balance towards lower oil prices for now.

WTI Crude Technicals: Rebound in Progress?

Technically WTI is trying to bounce after a big drop from $72.18 to $55.12 earlier this month. It’s now testing resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci at $61.66 and the 50-day EMA at $62.57—key levels to watch.

RSI is 51.82 neutral. A break above resistance could trigger a short term rally but without volume or confirmation upside may be limited.

Trade Setup for New Traders:

• Entry: Wait for a clean break and retest above $63.65

• Targets: $65.67 (61.8% Fib), $67.20 (trendline)

• Support: $59.13 and $56.82

• Stop-loss: Below the recent swing low

Pro tip: Don’t chase—wait for a close above $63.65 before going long. Protect your capital with a stop-loss.

Bottom Line: WTI crude is caught in a tight spot between demand worries, OPEC+ surprises and Iran’s return to the oil scene. Be nimble and wait for confirmation before making big moves.