Solana Plunges Below $100 Amid $200M Token Unlock: Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside
Solana (SOL) has plunged below the critical $100 support level, currently trading at approximately $97.85 and down over 17% in the past 24 hours. This significant decline in SOL/USD comes amid a broader cryptocurrency market selloff that has wiped $1.3 trillion from the combined crypto market capitalization since January.
Market-Wide Pressure Impacts Solana
The most recent decline aligns with what some experts refer to as a “ugly Monday crash” influencing the whole cryptocurrency market. While Ethereum, XRP, and other major cryptocurrencies have seen even more sharp drops, Bitcoin has dropped more than 10% from its previous high of about $90,000. It now stands below $77,000.
Following President Donald Trump’s recent declaration of worldwide tariffs, which some refer to as a possible “crisis scenario” for markets, market watchers credit this general selloff in part to economic uncertainty.
SOL Token Unlock Worth $200 Million Increases Selling Pressure
Solana’s present problems are greatly exacerbated by the April 4th unlocking of 1.79 million SOL tokens valued more than $200 million. Originally staked in April 2021, SOL traded close to $23, thereby offering significant profit-taking opportunity for owners.
On-chain platform Arkham claims that four accounts staking SOL in April 2021 are accountable for this unlock—the biggest single-day SOL unlock planned till 2028. Given the timing—coming during an already tumultuous market phase—the difficulty cannot be more great.
Solana’s DeFi Metrics Hold Steady in Face of Price Drop
What makes Solana’s current price action particularly intriguing is the contrast between market performance and network fundamentals. Despite the price downturn, Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem shows remarkable resilience:
- Record TVL in SOL Terms: Total Value Locked (TVL) on Solana reached 53.8 million SOL on April 2, marking a 14% increase from the previous month.
- Strong DeFi Position: In USD terms, Solana’s $6.5 billion TVL puts it $780 million ahead of its closest competitor, BNB Chain, firmly establishing it as the second-largest DeFi ecosystem behind Ethereum’s $50 billion.
- Significant DEX Market Share: Solana maintains a 24% share of decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, compared to BNB Chain’s 12% and Base’s 10%.
Among Solana’s top DApps by TVL are Jito (liquid staking), Jupiter (DEX), and Kamino (loan and liquidity platform).
Memecoin Decline Contributing to Reduced Network Activity
The memecoin market’s cooling is another element possibly influencing Solana’s price; this has been a main driver of new user adoption on the network. Over the past seven days, several Solana-based memcoeins—WIF, PENGU, POPCAT, AI16Z, BOME, and ACT—have witnessed decreases of 20% or more.
For background, weekly volumes on Raydium, a popular Solana DEX, have plunged 95% from the $42.9 billion all-time high attained in mid-January, during the height of the memecoin mania.
MEV Concerns Linger Among Some Network Participants
Maximum Extractable Value (MEV) policies on Solana have drawn questions from several market players. Not unique to Solana, but one that has received criticism from several DeFi liquidity providers, MEV results from validators reordering transactions for profit.
Critics have also highlighted what they characterize as “insider gatekeeping,” most likely referring to Solana Labs’ incentives meant to counterbalance the significant investment and upkeep required by some validators.
SOL/USD Technical Analysis Points to Further Weakness
Solana’s technical picture seems really bad. Accelerating its downward trend, the hourly chart shows SOL has broken below a crucial contracting triangle with support at $118.
Key technical indicators paint a bearish outlook:
- The hourly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues gaining pace in bearish territory
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, indicating persistent selling pressure
- SOL is trading well below both the $105 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average
Solana’s strong position in the DeFi scene implies the network is still creating basic value even if its immediate price action seems gloomy. The present $97.85 price marks a turning point since traders are intently observing whether the $92 support level will hold if selling pressure keeps on.
SOL would have to first recover the $105 resistance before overcoming more important obstacles at $112 and $116 so that bulls may take control. A strong break over $116 could indicate a possible trend reversal and provide the road towards $120 and $125 open.
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