Despite mixed economic data, gold prices continue their strong upward trajectory. Previously, a $4,000 price target for gold seemed unrealistic, but with XAU/USD reaching $3,057 on Wednesday, that scenario is becoming more plausible. However, a slight pullback to $3,002 prompted the opening of a buy signal for gold which closed in profit as Gold bounced off the 50 daily SMA (yellow) which is acting as support.
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Forex Signals Brief March 26: Have US Goods Orders Increase Ahead of Tariffs?
Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, March 26, 2025•3 min read
Today we have the durable goods orders for February, so let’s see if US importers have stocked up ahead of March tariffs went live.
Yesterday was relatively quiet, with weaker economic data in the US session. The Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index dropped significantly to -32.5 from -13.1 the previous month, and consumer confidence also declined to 92.9, below the expected 94.0 and down from 100.1 in the prior month. However, new home sales showed improvement as interest rates continued to decline.
The US dollar weakened against major currencies but managed to recover slightly from its intraday lows. The sharpest decline was against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY falling around 1 cent. The US dollar also slipped against the Canadian dollar, as President Trump’s comments that Canada and Mexico had taken substantial measures to avoid tariffs.
US stock markets ended the day higher, led by the Nasdaq, which gained 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed nearly flat, dropping just 4 points, or 0.01%, to 42,587 points. The S&P 500 rose 9 points, or 0.2%, closing at 5,776.
Other financial markets saw modest movements. Crude oil edged up by seven cents, or 0.10%, to trade at $69.18 per barrel. Gold prices increased by $8.92, or 0.30%, reaching $3,019.92 per ounce.
Today’s Forex Events
Today it started with the CPI inflation report from Australia. Australia’s inflation rate eased slightly in February, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at 2.4% year-over-year, just below the expected 2.5% and down from the previous reading of 2.5%. Core inflation, measured by the Trimmed Mean CPI, also saw a marginal drop to 2.7% from 2.8%.
The data indicates that pricing pressures in Australia are gradually easing, reinforcing the view that inflationary trends are moderating. The decline in core inflation further supports this outlook, suggesting that underlying price pressures are cooling.
In the UK, inflation data is expected to show a slight decline. The year-over-year CPI is forecasted at 2.9%, down from 3.0% previously, while the month-over-month reading is expected to rise to 0.5% from -0.1%. Core CPI is projected to ease slightly to 3.6% from 3.7%, and the services CPI is expected to come in at 4.9%, down from 5.0% in the prior month.
The Bank of England recently kept interest rates unchanged at 4.50% in an 8-1 vote, emphasizing its focus on inflation due to persistent wage growth and price pressures. Markets are now pricing in 44 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, down from 53 basis points before the BoE’s latest policy announcement.
Later today, the US will release its February Durable Goods Orders report. Core orders were flat in January at 0.09% but are expected to rise by 0.4% in February. Meanwhile, headline sales, which saw a 3.2% increase in January, are projected to decline by 0.6% for February.
Last week the volatility was high, but there were quite a few reversals as well, as the USD started to make a comeback after crashing down for several weeks. We opened many trading signals as a result, 43 in total, ending the week with 24 winning signals and 19 losing ones.
Buying Remains Supported by the 50 SMA
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
USD/JPY Rebounds Off the 100 Daily SMA
USD/JPY has been in a strong uptrend since 2021, with occasional pullbacks, including a sharp drop in Q3 2024. Buyers regained control in Q4, continuing the bullish trajectory. At the start of 2025, the pair faced heavy selling pressure, dropping over 10 cents due to various factors, bringing it down to 146.54. However, the 100-week SMA provided strong support, and USD/JPY has rebounded significantly over the past three weeks, climbing more than 4 cents and reclaiming the 150 level. The latest Bank of Japan meeting minutes did not indicate an imminent rate hike, maintaining a bullish outlook for USD/JPY.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Heads Toward $90K
Bitcoin experienced a sharp $5,000 jump midweek following the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance. However, despite public support for cryptocurrencies from President Trump, the rally was short-lived. BTC/USD faced resistance at the 20-day SMA, confirming this level as a significant barrier. The 200-day SMA is now acting as support, and failure to hold above it could lead to further declines. A breakout above the 20-day SMA, on the other hand, could propel Bitcoin past the $90,000 threshold.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Remains Stuck Between MAs
Ripple (XRP) saw a strong rally after CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced the resolution of the SEC lawsuit against the company. This news sent XRP surging over 10% to $2.58, briefly testing resistance at the 50-day SMA. However, buyers struggled to sustain momentum, and XRP fell below $2.50 by the session’s close. Despite the decline, Ripple remains the third-largest cryptocurrency, boasting a market capitalization of $146 billion.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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