Oil Rises as Market Weighs Iran Sanctions and Ceasefires

Comments from U.S. Trump also gave traders some hope that the tariffs announced in early April may not be as burdensome as feared.


Oil prices rose on a volatile Monday as investors assessed the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports alongside talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, which could increase Russian oil supply to global markets.

Brent crude futures gained 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 40 cents, or 0.6%, to $68.68.

USOIL

Oil prices remain within a narrow range as traders weigh the impact of new U.S. tariffs, the risk of an economic slowdown, the expected increase in OPEC+ supply next month, and the potential for U.S. sanctions to reduce Iranian supply. Both benchmarks closed higher on Friday, marking a second consecutive weekly gain, as new U.S. sanctions on Iran and the latest OPEC+ production plan raised expectations for tighter supply.

U.S. Sanctions on Iranian Oil Exports

On Thursday, the U.S. imposed new sanctions aimed at curbing Iran’s oil exports, including measures targeting a Chinese refinery processing Iranian crude. These sanctions could remove up to one million barrels per day of production from the market, though this may be offset by increased OPEC+ output.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian officials were in Saudi Arabia on Monday to negotiate a general ceasefire in Ukraine, with Washington separately pushing for a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea while broader talks continue.

OPEC+ News

Last week, OPEC+ released a new schedule for seven member countries to make further production cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed levels, which will significantly outpace the monthly production increases set to begin next month. OPEC+ has reduced output by 5.85 million barrels per day, or about 5.7% of global supply, through a series of measures since 2022 to support the market.

Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump also gave traders some hope that the tariffs announced in early April may not be as burdensome as initially feared. Trump indicated on Friday that there would be flexibility in the tariffs and that his chief trade negotiator plans to speak with his Chinese counterpart.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Ignacio Teson
Economist and Financial Analyst
Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

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