Gold surged to a new all-time high as market uncertainty persisted, briefly surpassing the $3,000 mark for the first time and reaching $3,004.85 before pulling back and closing the week slightly lower. Despite the late decline, gold still posted a 2.5% weekly gain, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact. The pullback triggered a buy signal, with expectations that the precious metal will print a new record high, as it returned above $3k yesterday.
btc-usd
Forex Brief March 18: Can the Risk Rally Push Dax 40 to New Record Highs?
Skerdian Meta•Tuesday, March 18, 2025•3 min read
Stock markets have reversed higher in the last two days, and the German Dax index is heading to the record high again after the pullback, which might be reached today if risk sentiment remains positive.
European stock markets saw solid gains yesterday, with the German DAX rising 0.60% as it moved closer to its record highs from earlier this month. Market sentiment improved following US retail sales data, which, despite being weak overall, showed stronger-than-expected performance in the control group. This was enough to ease concerns about a sharp economic downturn and provided some relief regarding the strength of US consumer spending.
Adding to the optimism, economic advisor Kevin Hassett indicated that positive developments on trade tariffs could be on the horizon, particularly regarding Canada and Mexico. While uncertainty around tariffs remains a key issue, his remarks suggested that reciprocal trade measures might not be as damaging as initially feared. Despite weaker housing data in the US, the USD/CAD dropped by one cent during the session, a move seen as a positive signal for trade discussions.
Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand dollars led gains among risk-sensitive assets, supported by China’s recently announced consumer stimulus package. The AUD remained stable throughout the day and gained an additional 40 pips during US trading hours. Before the US market opened, equity futures were firmly in the red, but as retail sales data helped improve sentiment, buying activity increased, leading to a recovery in stocks.
Today’s Market Expectations
In Canada, inflation figures are expected to reflect a slight upward trend. The month-over-month CPI reading is anticipated at 0.6%, up from the previous 0.1%, while year-over-year CPI is expected to rise to 2.2% from 1.9%. Median CPI year-over-year should increase to 2.8% from 2.7%, and the trimmed-mean CPI is also projected to edge up to 2.8% from 2.7%.
For nearly a year, inflation has remained within the Bank of Canada’s target range, but in recent months, a slight increase has emerged. This suggests that the central bank’s aggressive easing measures are starting to positively influence economic activity. As markets continue to watch inflation trends and trade negotiations, attention will likely remain on central bank policy decisions and further economic data releases.
Yesterday in currency the risk assets surged higher, especially commodity dollars, while safe havens retreated lower. Stocks were mixed. Crude oil reversed lower, and there was a fair amount of volatility in several sectors, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Gold Returns Above 3,000
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
AUD/USD Breaks Above the 10o SMA
The AUD/USD pair has been testing resistance at the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) following a strong rally over the past two months, largely driven by a weaker US dollar. While the long-term trend has been bearish since Q4 2024, the pair’s recent gains have challenged that downward trajectory. Earlier in February, AUD/USD attempted another drop, briefly falling below 0.61. However, sellers were unable to maintain control, and a delay in U.S. trade tariffs triggered a sharp rebound, pushing the pair above 0.64 by the end of the month.
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Breaks Faces the 200 Daily SMA As Resistance Now
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency markets remained volatile as uncertainty continued to dominate sentiment. Bitcoin initially spiked to $95,000 after Donald Trump announced plans to include BITCOIN , ETHEREUM , Solana, RIPPLE (XRP), and Cardano (ADA) in a proposed U.S. cryptocurrency reserve. However, traders remained cautious while waiting for further policy details. Selling pressure quickly returned, causing Bitcoin to drop below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Before staging a recovery, Bitcoin briefly fell to $80,000, but it is now struggling to regain momentum above key moving averages.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Keeps Making Lower Highs
The overall tone in the cryptocurrency sector remains uncertain, yet Ripple (XRP) is showing signs of stabilization. Since reaching its all-time high of $3.40 in mid-January, XRP has failed to sustain any major breakout. However, conditions appear to be improving, as a solid support base has formed around $2, with an upper boundary at $2.20. The 20 SMA (gray) has been providing consistent support, catching up to the price over the past few weeks. Despite brief dips below this moving average, XRP has never closed beneath it, which is seen as a positive technical signal. Last week, XRP’s chart displayed a hammer candlestick pattern, a potential indicator of a bullish reversal. If momentum continues to build, XRP could see renewed buying interest, breaking out of its recent consolidation range.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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