Ethereum Faces Prolonged Bearish Pressure as Price Struggles Below $1,900
Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading above $1,800, down over 1.6% in the past 24 hours, continuing a troubling downtrend that has persisted for nearly three months. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization ETH/USD has shed more than 53% of its value since peaking above $4,100 in December 2023, with several key factors converging to create significant selling pressure.
Trump’s Trade War Fears Amplify Risk-Off Sentiment
As macroeconomic worries became more serious, the larger crypto market has been caught in a sea of selling. Citing possible “extreme U.S. policies” from President Donald Trump’s government as a main risk factor, JPMorgan just increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 to 40%, up from a previous estimate of 30%. Goldman Sachs has likewise raised their 12-month recession likelihood to 20%.
Rising trade tensions have intensified these worries. Along with 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, the Trump government’s latest move to apply 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada has set off reprisals from these trading partners. While China has already raised tariffs on many U.S. items and instituted export restrictions on 25 U.S. companies, Canada and Mexico have declared intentions to slap counter-tariffs on U.S. commodities.
For risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies, the effects of escalating trade tensions really matter. Given a 52-week correlation of 0.69 between the S&P 500 and the crypto market, conventional financial markets still have a major impact on Ethereum’s price swings.
Ethereum Spot ETF Outflows Add to Selling Pressure
Complicating Ethereum’s situation, U.S. spot Ether ETFs have entered a fourth straight week of net negative outflows. Sosovalue data shows that throughout the past week alone, these ETFs experienced total withdrawals valued over $119 million. The possible price recovery of the asset is being limited by this ongoing migration of institutional capital.
Some institutional players still have hope for Ethereum’s long-term future despite the general gloomy attitude. For Ether’s price in 2025 VanEck, for example, has projected a $6,000 cycle top.
DeFi Liquidation Risks Loom Large
A worrying trend in the decentralized finance (DeFi) market is increasing demand on Ethereum prices. Nearly faced liquidation, a $74 million DeFi loan on the Sky protocol collateralized with $130 million in ETH dropped below the crucial level slightly above $1,900.
The borrower has been compelled to act quickly to prevent liquidation, adding $34 million more ETH collateral and lowering their debt to $73.1 million among other things. Still, the liquidation level stays dangerously near to ETH’s present trading price—$1,836 per ETH.
More alarming is that comparable loans account for around $353 million in debt, all of which run risk of liquidation should ETH’s price drop another 20%. Such a mass of liquidations might greatly quicken the downward price pressure as borrowers try to stabilize their positions by selling or transferring ETH.
Ethereum Staking Integration Could Offer Long-Term Support
The pursuit of staking integration into ETH ETFs presents one possible encouraging step for Ethereum. Based on a March 11 disclosure, Securities Exchange Cboe BZX is asking U.S. authorities permission to include staking into Fidelity’s Ether exchange-traded fund (FESH).
Following a similar request in February involving the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF, this is Cboe’s most recent effort to implement staking for the Ether funds traded on its U.S. exchange. With Staking Ether currently yielding about 3.3% APR, ETF holders may find returns improved and institutional demand in these products could be raised.
Before staking can start, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has to yet accept Cboe’s suggested regulatory modifications. Nonetheless, the SEC has admitted more than a dozen exchange reports on cryptocurrency ETFs in February, maybe indicating a changed attitude on crypto control.
ETH/USD Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside
From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s price movement appears to be following an inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern, suggesting more pain ahead for investors:
- The rounded top formation indicates a gradual loss of bullish momentum, with sellers taking control
- A temporary consolidation near $2,700 represents a failed breakout attempt
- ETH has broken below key support levels, confirming the IC&H breakdown
- The measured move target from this pattern suggests a potential decline toward $1,700
Ethereum is currently trading inside a descending channel pattern that formed in late February. After testing the channel’s lower trendline as support, prices have shown a modest recovery. If historical patterns repeat, ETH’s next upside target could be around $2,000, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line. However, a reversal from current levels could send ETH toward the IC&H downside target of $1,700.
Extreme Bearish Ethereum Price Predictions Emerge
Industry insiders are starting to express worries about the possible extent of Ethereum’s fall-off. Known as “Quit,” Yuga Labs’ vice president of blockchain recently cautioned Ether might plummet as low as $200 in a protracted bear market, a 90% drop from its current price.
This projection runs counter to those of analysts who have proposed $1,500 as a probable low. Quit says that, should we be just starting, a “real bear market target would be ~$200-$400. In keeping with historical weak markets, it is an 80% loss from here, 90% overall drawdown.”
Such forecasts have generated discussion among the crypto community since some investors believe ETH would decline much more while others contend such a situation would call for a significant systematic collapse akin to 2018. Unlike past cycles, Ethereum has a more developed ecosystem and more institutional acceptance, which could help to somewhat offset sharp price drops.
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