Oil Prices Slide Below $66 – Will OPEC+ Intervene?
WTI crude oil is trading at $65.92, extending its decline as concerns over a potential U.S. recession, trade tariffs, and OPEC+ supply shifts weigh on market sentiment.
The recent drop follows growing fears that global oil demand could weaken as economic uncertainty deepens.
Adding to the pressure, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that OPEC+ plans to increase oil production from April, but remains flexible to reverse the decision if market conditions worsen. Meanwhile, stock markets are experiencing heightened volatility, with the S&P 500 seeing its biggest single-day drop since December 2022, fueling risk-off sentiment in commodities.
The question now is whether oil prices can hold support or if further declines are inevitable. Will OPEC+ act to stabilize the market, or will bearish momentum continue to drive crude lower?
Recession Fears and Trade Wars Hit Oil Prices
Crude oil prices have faced mounting pressure amid growing concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth. A key driver of this weakness has been U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, which have resulted in:
25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, later delayed but still fueling uncertainty.
Increased duties on Chinese imports, prompting retaliatory measures.
Stock market turmoil, with the Nasdaq plunging 4% in a single session.
Over the weekend, Trump admitted that the U.S. economy is in a “period of transition”, but refrained from predicting whether a full-blown recession was on the horizon. His comments triggered a wave of selling across risk assets, including crude oil, as investors priced in weaker global demand.
The impact has already been felt in oil markets, where WTI crude has fallen over 10% this month, and Brent crude struggles to hold $70 per barrel.
OPEC+ Plans Production Hike – But For How Long?
On the supply side, OPEC+ has confirmed an upcoming production increase in April, but uncertainties remain. Analysts suggest that:
If oil prices fall below $70 per barrel for an extended period, OPEC+ may pause its output hike.
Russia and Saudi Arabia are watching U.S. Iran and Venezuela policies, which could influence future oil supply decisions.
U.S. oil stockpiles are expected to rise, adding further pressure on crude prices.
While the global oil cartel remains flexible, investors are closely monitoring the weekly crude inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) for additional market direction.
Technical Outlook: Can WTI Hold Above $65?
From a technical perspective, WTI crude remains in a bearish trend, with strong resistance levels preventing a breakout.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: $65.27, with a break below opening the door to $64.13 and $63.17.
Resistance: $67.27, with a breakout needed for a push toward $68.49 and $70.45.
50-period EMA: $67.63, acting as a major barrier for any bullish recovery.
For now, WTI crude remains under pressure, with buyers needing a decisive move above resistance levels to regain momentum. Until then, oil prices are likely to remain vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties.
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