The tariff delays contributed to USD weakness, boosting the euro and allowing EUR/USD to recover from near-parity levels. Over the past week, the euro outperformed all major currencies, gaining four cents to a four-month high above 1.08. Notably, EUR/USD broke above all major daily moving averages for the first time since November, signaling a potential shift in market momentum.
btc-usd
Forex Signals Brief March 10: Tariffs Weigh on USD & CAD Ahead of US Inflation & BoC Rate Cut
Skerdian Meta•Monday, March 10, 2025•4 min read
This week we have the US CPI inflation and BOC 25 bps rate cut decision, but the USD and CAD remain prone to trade tariffs.
The market focus last week was dominated by tariff concerns, which kept the U.S. dollar under pressure, leading to an overall decline of 4 cents. While non-farm payrolls (NFP) data and the ECB rate cut were also in play, they did not significantly impact market sentiment.
The headline NFP figure met expectations, and although a deeper analysis of the Eurozone economy and household report showed signs of weakness, the market had been bracing for a sharper decline, leading to some relief trading. However, tariff tensions remain high, with Donald Trump threatening additional tariffs on Canada this weekend and China signaling potential retaliatory duties on some Canadian exports.
This weighed on the Canadian dollar, allowing USD/CAD to recover some of its previous losses on Friday. Meanwhile, crude oil also struggled last week, falling to $65 before rebounding to $67 by Friday’s close. The U.S. stock market faced persistent selling pressure throughout the week, but bottomed out on Friday midday, staging a relief rally to close out the week, marking the worst week for equities since September.
In currency markets, USD/JPY formed a double-bottom below 147.00 before rising a full penny in the final trading hours, while EUR/USD closed above 1.08, reflecting broad-based dollar weakness.
This Week’s Market Expectations
This week brings several key economic reports and policy decisions that could drive major market movements. US inflation data (CPI & PPI), BoC’s rate decision, and ECB wage growth insights will be closely watched for monetary policy implications.
Additionally, the implementation of new US tariffs on steel and aluminum could escalate trade tensions, while OPEC and IEA reports may impact oil prices. Investors will also monitor the Eurozone and UK GDP data for signs of economic resilience or slowdown.
With global inflation trends, trade policies, and central bank decisions taking center stage, markets are likely to experience heightened volatility throughout the week.
Key Economic Events for the Week
Monday, March 11
- Eurogroup Meeting: Finance ministers from the Eurozone discuss economic policies and fiscal matters.
- Norwegian CPI (February): Key inflation data that may influence Norges Bank’s monetary policy.
- Eurozone Sentix Index (March): Measures investor confidence and economic sentiment in the Euro area.
- Japanese GDP (Q4): Final estimate of Japan’s economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2024.
Tuesday, March 12
- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO): A crucial report providing forecasts on energy prices, supply, and demand trends.
Wednesday, March 13
- US Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum: A 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum takes effect, potentially impacting trade relations and industrial costs.
- Bank of Canada (BoC) Rate Announcement: Interest rate decision and economic outlook from Canada’s central bank.
- ECB Wage Tracker: Provides insights into wage growth trends, an essential factor for inflation and monetary policy.
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR): Updates on global oil production, demand forecasts, and supply outlooks.
- US CPI (February): The key inflation report that could influence Federal Reserve policy and market sentiment.
Thursday, March 14
- IEA Oil Market Report (OMR): A global energy report detailing crude oil production and demand forecasts.
- EU-South Africa Summit: High-level discussions on trade, security, and economic cooperation.
- Swedish CPIF (February): Sweden’s core inflation measure, which impacts Riksbank’s monetary decisions.
- Eurozone Industrial Production (January): A crucial indicator of economic activity and manufacturing output in the region.
- US PPI (February): Producer Price Index report, a key measure of wholesale inflation that impacts consumer prices.
Friday, March 15
- UK GDP Estimate (January): A preliminary estimate of the UK’s economic growth, providing insight into its recovery trends.
- University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey (March): A widely followed indicator of US consumer confidence and economic expectations.
The depreciation of the US dollar stalled yesterday, but there was still volatility in forex and other markets, particularly in stock markets and there were quite a few reversals, as tariffs are postponed. Crude oil prices also fell further but bounced late in the day. As a result, we closed 6 trades across all markets, breaking even at the end of the day.
Gold Stabilizes Above 2,900
After a sharp sell-off in February, gold resumed its bullish momentum, reclaiming the $2,900 level. Despite briefly pulling back from record highs above $2,956, GOLD remains in high demand across both risk-on and risk-off scenarios. Over the past two days, gold has surged past $2,915, with buyers returning near key support at $2,832. Cryptocurrency markets experienced significant volatility, fueled by uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and tariffs.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
The 100 Daily SMA Stops the Surge in EUR/USD
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Breaks Below the 200 Daily SMA
BITCOIN experienced a robust recovery to $95,000 as the 200-day SMA served as support following Donald Trump’s declaration of a U.S. crypto reserve that will comprise Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA). The market response, however, was subdued as traders awaited further clarification on the specifics of the policy. Despite the early rebound, negative pressure soon returned, and by Tuesday of last week, Bitcoin had fallen below the 200 SMA once more. Sellers maintained control after the majority of the gains from Trump’s declaration of a crypto reserve were erased. The upper moving averages served as resistance each time Bitcoin tried to regain the 200-day SMA, halting a long-term comeback. Bitcoin finally made a strong break below the 200-day SMA yesterday, paving the way for a possible decline toward $80,000 and February’s low of $78,500.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Heads for $2 Again
Meanwhile, XRP surged 50% after Trump confirmed that Ripple, Solana, and Cardano would be included in the U.S. national cryptocurrency reserve. Despite the initial spike toward $3, XRP failed to break through resistance, leading to a sharp decline back to $2.2150. However, as market sentiment improved, risk assets rebounded, and XRP regained the $2.50 level. Moving forward, a break above $3 is needed for sustained bullish momentum, while a drop below $2.20 could trigger another wave of selling pressure.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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