Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to break out, hovering near $86,200, despite weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data that has fueled speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

This could weaken the dollar further, offering potential upside for BTC.

NFP Miss & Rising Unemployment Shake Markets

The latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed 151,000 jobs added in February, falling short of the 160,000 forecast. January’s payrolls were also revised down to 125,000 from 143,000, signaling a weaker labor market.

Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.1%, with the Participation Rate dropping to 62.4%. Wage growth climbed to 4% from 3.9%, adding mixed signals to the economic outlook.

Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP) in the #US rose by 151,000 in Feb, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading followed the 125,000 increase (revised from 143,000) recorded in Jan and fell short of the market expectation of 160,000. pic.twitter.com/JpTFpACNXM

— Bella Keith (@Bellakeith_fx) March 7, 2025

Key Takeaways:

• NFP Missed Expectations → 151K jobs added vs. 160K expected

• Unemployment Rate Climbed → 4.1% from 4.0%

• Wage Growth Increased → 4% YoY from 3.9%

• Rate Cut Bets Jump → 40% chance of a May cut, up from 25% last week

US Data:

Nonfarm Payrolls: 151k vs 159K

Unemployment Rate: 4.1% vs 4.0%#NFP #JobsReport pic.twitter.com/Pps6XWOrn9

— Mr~ICT✍️ (@ICTL0VER) March 7, 2025

Weaker jobs data has raised the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, weakening the U.S. dollar—a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s next move. However, economic uncertainty continues to weigh on investor sentiment.

ETF Outflows & Trade Tensions Add More Pressure

Beyond macroeconomic concerns, institutional investors have been cautious, as evidenced by four consecutive weeks of Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, totaling over $2.6 billion in February. This has limited BTC’s upside, reflecting a shift in risk sentiment.

Adding to market volatility, former President Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods has triggered retaliatory measures. This trade war escalation has driven investors toward safer assets, slowing Bitcoin’s momentum.

Market Impact:

• ETF outflows hit $2.6B, signaling institutional caution

• Trump’s new tariffs escalate trade tensions with Canada, Mexico & China

• Bitcoin nears $87,000 as weak jobs data boosts rate cut hopes

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook

Bitcoin is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle on the 2-hour chart, currently trading around $86,200.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: $86,900, holding as a crucial pivot zone

• Bearish Breakdown: If BTC loses $86,900, next supports are $84,750 and $81,500

• Resistance: $87,900 (50-period EMA) → BTC needs a break above to regain bullish momentum

• Bullish Breakout: A move past $89,200 could send BTC toward $92,800 and $95,100

With NFP data weakening the dollar, Bitcoin could gain momentum. However, institutional selling, trade tensions, and ETF outflows remain key risks.

Conclusion: Will the Fed Cut Rates & Boost BTC?

Bitcoin’s price action hinges on Fed rate cut speculation, ETF flows, and macro uncertainty. While a weaker dollar supports BTC’s long-term case, short-term risks include institutional selling and global trade tensions.

Final Thoughts:

• If Fed rate cut bets increase, Bitcoin could reclaim $92,800+

• If economic uncertainty rises, BTC may struggle to hold $86,900 support

• Key trigger: Breakout above $89,200 = potential bullish reversal