Bitcoin Rides Volatility Wave Above $90K as US Crypto Reserve Plans and Tariff Tensions Collide
In a week of dramatic price swings, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to demonstrate heightened volatility as traders navigate conflicting signals from recent U.S. policy announcements. After briefly touching $94,770 on March 3, the world’s largest cryptocurrency BTC/USD plummeted to $82,681 just a day later before recovering above the $90,000 mark on March 5.
Bitcoin’s Realized Volatility Reaches Cycle Highs
Data from Glassnode and TradingView indicate that Bitcoin’s realized volatility has recorded some of the highest values of the current cycle, exceeding 80% on both one- and two-week timeframes. The Average True Range (ATR), another key volatility indicator, has reached cycle highs above 4,900, up substantially from approximately 3,000 in late February.
“As demonstrated by the intense whipsaw in price action, this has led to very turbulent conditions over the last two weeks against a backdrop of an uncertain political environment,” Glassnode noted in a March research publication.
This heightened volatility resulted in over $1 billion in cryptocurrency derivatives liquidations on March 4 alone, as traders were caught off guard by rapid market movements.
Trump’s Dual-Impact Announcements: Crypto Reserve vs. Tariffs
Two major policy pronouncements from President Donald Trump’s government help to explain the current market volatility:
- Trump said on March 2 intentions to establish a U.S. cryptocurrency strategic reserve of Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano. Initially, this drove Bitcoin skyward toward $95,000 as investors responded favorably to this unparalleled government support.
- Just days later on March 4, Trump levied 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, raising questions on world economic stability. This macroeconomic shock drove Bitcoin falling to about $82,000, proving that more general economic events can nonetheless overwhelm industry-specific positive changes.
Commerce Secretary Hints at Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has advised Bitcoin may still get preferential treatment despite early concerns over adding different cryptocurrencies in the proposed US crypto reserve.
“Bitcoin is one thing, and then the other currencies, the other crypto tokens, I think, will be treated differently — positively, but differently,” Lutnick said The Pavlovic Today.
Reflecting this view, bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said, “after the dust settles, I suspect the final reserve will be nearly entirely Bitcoin, and it will be larger than people think.”
At the forthcoming White House Crypto Summit on March 7, the government is anticipated to reveal more specific plans including confirmation of attendance by up to 25 industry heavyweights including MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, Chainlink’s Sergey Nazarov, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.
State-Level Bitcoin Reserve Momentum Builds
Individual states are advancing their own Bitcoin reserve legislation while federal projects gather steam. On March 5, House Bill 302 from New Hampshire passed its House Commerce and Consumer Affairs Committee with a resounding 16-1 vote.
Should the measure pass, New Hampshire’s treasurer would be authorized to invest up to 5% from various public funds into digital assets with a market valuation averaging over $500 billion—a criteria only met by Bitcoin at present. The measure also allows investing in platinum, gold, and silver, precious metals.
While proposals in Utah and Arizona have already cleared that obstacle, New Hampshire joins North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas in awaiting full House votes on similar legislation.
Mt. Gox Movements Add to Market Uncertainty
In this volatility, abandoned trade Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that Mt. Gox moved about 12,000 BTC—worth more than $1 billion—to an unknown wallet on March 6. The transaction fee came at just $1.64.
166.5 BTC (about $15 million) was transferred to the Mt. Gox cold wallet concurrently, while the rest went to an unknown address now carrying 11,834 BTC.
Based on Arkham data, Mt. Gox-linked companies today own 36,080 BTC valued roughly $3.26 billion. This is the first notable Bitcoin transaction from wallets connected to Mt. Gox-linked wallets in a month; it is yet unknown what drove this most recent activity.
Originally filed for bankruptcy in early 2014, the exchange has periodically shifted its Bitcoin holdings before creditor payouts starting in 2024. The trustee added a full year to October 31, 2025 as the creditor refund deadline last October.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Recovery Patterns Emerge
Technically, Bitcoin seems to be starting a rebound trend after support close to $82,000. On the hourly chart, the asset has broken above a negative trend line with resistance at $90,000; it is presently trading above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average as well.
Based on the 76.4% Fibonacci retracing level of the last negative movement from $95,000 to $81,434, immediate resistance falls close to $91,800. Should Bitcoin surpass this level, more opposition lies at $92,500 and $93,500.
If momentum maintains, a successful break over $93,500 might drive prices toward the current high of $95,000 with possible extensions to $96,200 or possibly $98,000.
On the negative side, immediate support is at $88,000; additional important support areas follow at $86,200 and $85,000. Should these levels fall short, a retest of the $82,000 area seems most likely, with the psychologically significant $80,000 level acting as main support.
Bitcoin Outlook: What’s Next for BTC Price?
Market players are actively tracking both technical signs and policy changes as Bitcoin stays almost 30% below its all-time high of almost $109,000 attained in December. The forthcoming White House Crypto Summit might provide vital clarification on the government’s attitude to digital assets and maybe help to stabilize the state of the market.
Altcoins have also had even more extreme drops; Glassnode data shows that Ethereum and Solana both dropped more than 50% from their recent highs.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
See More
Sidebar rates
Related Posts
SaveAdd 3440
Join 350 000+ traders receiving Free Trading Signals
Alerts
Rates
Calendar
Signals