WTI Crude Oil Price Drops 2%: Will It Rebound in March?
WTI Crude Oil prices are facing their first monthly decline since November, as concerns over global economic growth and uncertainty around U.S. tariff policies weigh heavily on the market.
As of February 28, 2025, WTI Crude Oil is trading at $69.86, down 0.16%, struggling to break above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $70.38. The price is currently testing the downward trendline, signaling continued bearish pressure.
Both WTI and Brent Crude are on track to post their first monthly losses in three months, driven by a combination of U.S. economic slowdown fears, trade tariffs, and OPEC+ supply decisions. According to Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, “Investors are cautious due to the long list of economic challenges, including tariff uncertainties and mixed U.S. economic data.”
WTI Crude Oil Key Price Levels and Technical Outlook
WTI Crude Oil faces strong resistance at $70.38, aligned with the 50 EMA and the downward trendline. Any upward movement is likely to be capped unless WTI decisively breaks above this level, which would shift the momentum towards the bulls. The next resistance levels are at $71.21 and $72.05.
On the downside, immediate support is at $69.17, followed by $68.34 and a more substantial floor at $67.48. A break below $69.17 could accelerate the decline towards $68.34 and possibly $67.48, reinforcing the bearish trend.
For traders, the recommended strategy is to Sell Below $70.38 with a Take Profit at $69.17 and a Stop Loss at $71.21. Monitoring price action near $69.17 is crucial, as a breakdown here could lead to more selling pressure.
Market Sentiment and Economic Impact
The bearish sentiment is compounded by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods starting March 4, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports. This has raised concerns over a potential slowdown in global trade, affecting crude demand.
Moreover, data from the U.S. Labor Department showed a significant rise in jobless claims, reinforcing fears of an economic slowdown. The revised Q4 GDP data also confirmed that U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, further weighing on investor sentiment.
Despite these challenges, oil prices rose 2% on Thursday after Trump revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela, tightening supply concerns. However, analysts from Fitch’s BMI Research warn that the downside risks from U.S. tariffs are currently overshadowing supply worries.
OPEC+ Supply Decisions and Market Outlook
OPEC+ is debating whether to raise oil output in April as planned or freeze it, given the uncertain global supply scenario. Fresh U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia are complicating the decision-making process. According to eight OPEC+ sources, the group is struggling to read the global supply picture amid the U.S. policy changes.
If OPEC+ decides to maintain or cut production, it could provide a short-term boost to prices. However, if the group increases output, it may further pressure WTI prices, potentially testing support levels at $68.34 and $67.48.
Key Insights:
Bearish Momentum: WTI remains bearish below the 50 EMA at $70.38 and the downward trendline.
Support Levels: Key supports at $69.17, $68.34, and $67.48.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $70.38, followed by $71.21 and $72.05.
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